NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?

Peter J. Klenow, Oleksiy Kryvtsov

NBER Working Paper No. 11043
Issued in January 2005
NBER Program(s):   EFG

Inflation equals the product of two terms: an extensive margin (the fraction of items with price changes) and an intensive margin (the average size of those price changes). The variance of inflation over time can be decomposed into contributions from each margin. The extensive margin figures importantly in many state-dependent pricing models, whereas the intensive margin is the sole source of inflation changes in staggered time-dependent pricing models. We use micro data collected by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to decompose the variance of consumer price inflation from 1988 through 2003. We find that around 95% of the variance of monthly inflation stems from fluctuations in the average size of price changes, i.e., the intensive margin. When we calibrate a prominent state-dependent pricing model to match this empirical variance decomposition, the model's shock responses are very close to those in time-dependent pricing models.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w11043

Published: Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2008. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does It Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(3), pages 863-904, August. citation courtesy of

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