The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline

Menzie D. Chinn, Michael LeBlanc, Olivier Coibion

NBER Working Paper No. 11033
Issued in January 2005
NBER Program(s):   IFM   AP

This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for energy commodities (crude oil, gasoline, heating oil markets and natural gas). In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot prices. We find that while futures prices are unbiased predictors of future spot prices, with the exception those in the natural gas markets at the 3-month horizon. Futures do not appear to well predict subsequent movements in energy commodity prices, although they slightly outperform time series models.

(197 K)

This paper is available as PDF (197 K) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX