TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bommier,Antoine
AU  - Lee,Ronald
AU  - Miller,Timothy
AU  - Zuber,Stephane
TI  - Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 10969
PY  - 2004
Y2  - December 2004
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10969
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10969.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Ronald Lee
Departments of Demography and Economics
University of California, Berkeley
2232 Piedmont Avenue
Berkeley, CA  94720
Tel: 510/642-4535
Fax: 510/643-8558
E-Mail: rlee@demog.berkeley.edu
AB  - Public transfer programs in industrial nations have massive long term fiscal imbalances, and apparently permit the elderly to benefit through pension and health care programs at the cost of the young and future generations. However, the intergenerational picture is turned upside down when public education is included in generational accounts along with pensions and health care. We calculate the net present value (NPV) of benefits received minus taxes paid for US generations born 1850 to 2090, and find that all generations born from 1950 to 2050 are net gainers, while many of today's old people are net losers. Windfall gains for early generations when Social Security and Medicare started up partially offset windfall losses when public education was started, roughtly consistent with the Becker-Murphy theory.
ER  -