NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The Structure of Expectations of the Weekly Money Supply Announcement

Thomas Urich, Paul Wachtel

NBER Working Paper No. 1090 (Also Reprint No. r0527)
Issued in March 1983
NBER Program(s):   ME

This paper examines the structure of expectations of the weekly money supply announcement in the late 1970s. The data used are from a weekly telephone survey of money market participants. The rationality and structure of expectations are explored with the data organized in three ways:the mean response to each weekly survey, the pooled sample of individual responses, and time series of responses by each individual in the survey.The effect of data aggregation on rationality tests is investigated. The structure of the expectations data are also examined and it is found that both strong regressive influences and adaptive learning characterize the data.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w1090

Published: Urich, Thomas and Paul Wachtel. "The Structure of Expectations of the Weekly Money Supply Announcements." Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 13, No . 2, (April 1984), pp. 183-194.

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