TY  - JOUR
AU  - Klein,Michael W.
AU  - Shambaugh,Jay C.
TI  - Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 10696
PY  - 2004
Y2  - August 2004
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10696
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10696.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Michael W. Klein
Fletcher School
Tufts University
Medford, MA 02155
Tel: (617) 627-2718
Fax: (617) 627-3712
E-Mail: michael.klein@tufts.edu

Jay C. Shambaugh
McDonough School of Business
Georgetown University
542 Hariri
Washington, DC 20057
Tel: 202/687-6625
E-Mail: jcs264@georgetown.edu
AB  - A classic argument for a fixed exchange rate is its promotion of trade. Empirical support for this, however, is mixed. While one branch of research consistently shows a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility on trade, another, more recent, branch presents evidence of a large positive impact of currency unions on trade. This paper helps resolve this disconnect. Our results, which use a new data-based classification of fixed exchange rate regimes, show a large, significant effect of a fixed exchange rate on bilateral trade between a base country and a country that pegs to it. Furthermore, the web of fixed exchange rates created when countries link to a common base also promotes trade, but only when these countries are part of a wider system, as during the Bretton Woods period. These results suggest an economically relevant role for exchange rate regimes in trade determination since a significant amount of world trade is conducted between countries with fixed exchange rates.
ER  -