TY  - JOUR
AU  - Jovanovic,Boyan
TI  - Asymmetric Cycles
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 10573
PY  - 2004
Y2  - June 2004
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10573
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10573.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Boyan Jovanovic
New York University
Department of Economics
19 W. 4th Street, 6th Floor
New York, NY  10012
Tel: 212/998-8953
Fax: 212/995-4186
E-Mail: Boyan.Jovanovic@nyu.edu
AB  - I estimate a model in which new technology entails random adjustment costs. Rapid adjustments may cause productivity slowdowns. These slowdowns last longer when retooling is costly. The model explains why growth-rate disasters are more likely than miracles, and why volatility of growth relates negatively to growth over time. I estimate the model, and the estimates have surprising implications. Firms seem to abandon technologies long before they are perfected   current-practice TFP is 17 percent below best-practice.
ER  -