@techreport{NBERw10573,
 title = "Asymmetric Cycles",
 author = "Boyan Jovanovic",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Working Paper",
 series = "Working Paper Series",
 number = "10573",
 year = "2004",
 month = "June",
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w10573",
 abstract = {I estimate a model in which new technology entails random adjustment costs. Rapid adjustments may cause productivity slowdowns. These slowdowns last longer when retooling is costly. The model explains why growth-rate disasters are more likely than miracles, and why volatility of growth relates negatively to growth over time. I estimate the model, and the estimates have surprising implications. Firms seem to abandon technologies long before they are perfected   current-practice TFP is 17 percent below best-practice.},
}