TY  - JOUR
AU  - Davis,Donald R.
AU  - Weinstein,David E.
TI  - A Search for Multiple Equilibria in Urban Industrial Structure
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 10252
PY  - 2004
Y2  - January 2004
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10252
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10252.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Donald R. Davis
Columbia University, Department of Economics
1038 Intl. Affairs Building
420 West 118th St.
New York, NY 10027
Tel: 212/854-4037
Fax: 212/854-8059
E-Mail: drd28@columbia.edu

David Weinstein
Columbia University, Department of Economics
420 W. 118th Street
MC 3308
New York, NY  10027
Tel: 212/854-6880
Fax: 212/854-8059
E-Mail: dew35@columbia.edu
AB  - Theories featuring multiple equilibria are now widespread across many fields of economics. Yet little empirical work has asked if such multiple equilibria are salient features of real economies. We examine this in the context of the Allied bombing of Japanese cities and industries in WWII. We develop a new empirical test for multiple equilibria and apply it to data for 114 Japanese cities in eight manufacturing industries. The data provide no support for the existence of multiple equilibria. In the aftermath even of immense shocks, a city typically recovers not only its population and its share of aggregate manufacturing, but even the specific industries it had before.
ER  -