TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bacchetta,Philippe
AU  - Wincoop,Eric van
TI  - A Scapegoat Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 10245
PY  - 2004
Y2  - January 2004
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10245
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10245.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Philippe Bacchetta
Faculty of Business and Economics
University of Lausanne
Extranef
CH-1015 Lausanne
Switzerland
E-Mail: philippe.bacchetta@unil.ch

Eric van Wincoop
Department of Economics
University of Virginia
P.O. Box 400182
Charlottesville, VA  22904-4182
Tel: 434/924-3997
Fax: 434/982-2904
E-Mail: vanwincoop@virginia.edu
AB  - While empirical evidence finds only a weak relationship between nominal exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals, forex markets participants often attribute exchange rate movements to a macroeconomic variable. The variables that matter, however, appear to change over time and some variable is typically taken as a scapegoat. For example, the current dollar weakness appears to be caused almost exclusively by the large current account deficit, while its previous strength was explained mainly by growth differentials. In this paper, we propose an explanation of this phenomenon in a simple monetary model of the exchange rate with noisy rational expectations, where investors have heterogeneous information on some structural parameter of the economy. In this context, there may be rational confusion about the true source of exchange rate fluctuations, so that if an unobservable variable affects the exchange rate, investors may attribute this movement to some current macroeconomic fundamental. We show that this effect applies only to variables with large imbalances. The model thus implies that the impact of macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate changes over time.
ER  -