NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?

Andrew K. Rose

NBER Working Paper No. 10207
Issued in January 2004
NBER Program(s):   ITI

I examine the hypothesis that membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) has increased the stability and predictability of trade flows. I use a large data set covering annual bilateral trade flows between over 175 countries between 1950 and 1999, and estimate the effect of GATT/WTO membership on the coefficient of variation in trade computed over 25-year samples, controlling for a number of factors. I also use a comparable multilateral data set. There is little evidence that membership in the GATT/WTO has a significant dampening effect on trade volatility.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w10207

Published: Rose, Andrew K. "Does The WTO Make Trade More Stable?," Open Economies Review, 2005, v16(1,Jan), 7-22.

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