TY  - JOUR
AU  - Urata,Shujiro
AU  - Kiyota,Kozo
TI  - The Impacts of an East Asia FTA on Foreign Trade in East Asia
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 10173
PY  - 2003
Y2  - December 2003
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10173
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10173.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Shujiro Urata
Grad. School of Asia-Pacific Studies
Waseda University
1-21-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku
Tokyo 169-8050
JAPAN
Tel: 81-3-3203-2597
Fax: 81-3-5286-1414
E-Mail: surata@waseda.jp

Kozo Kiyota
Department of Economics
University of Michigan
611 Tappan St.
Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1220
Tel: 734-936-1241
E-Mail: kiyota@ynu.ac.jp
AB  - This paper attempts to examine the impact of an East Asia FTA on trade patterns in East Asia by using a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model. The model used in this analysis is the standard GTAP model and GTAP database developed by Hertel (1997) and his colleagues of Purdue University. Our findings are summarized as follows: First, the impacts of an East Asia FTA on GDP and welfare of member countries are generally positive, while the impacts on non-members are negative. Second and surprisingly, the FTA does not seem to affect much on the patterns of comparative advantage or intra-industry trade. Third, production of the sectors with a comparative advantage increases. Fourth, unexpectedly exports of protected sectors increase, reflecting a shift in incentives from domestic sales to export sales. Finally, an East Asia FTA will promote regionalization in East Asia but it will not necessarily promote regionalization in AFTA.
ER  -