TY  - JOUR
AU  - Marion,Nancy Peregrim
AU  - Svensson,Lars E.O.
TI  - Adjustment to Expected and Unexpected Oil Price Changes
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 997
PY  - 1982
Y2  - October 1982
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w0997
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w0997.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Nancy Marion
Department of Economics
Dartmouth College
Hanover, NH  03755
E-Mail: Nancy.P.Marion@Dartmouth.EDU

Lars E.O. Svensson
Sveriges Riksbank
SE-103 37 Stockholm
SWEDEN
Tel: +46 8 787 0107
Fax: +46 8 21 0531
E-Mail: lars.svensson@iies.su.se
AB  - For oil importers, differences in economic performance after the 1973-74 oil price increase and after the 1979-80 increase can be attributed to a number of factors, including the fact that the 1973-74 oil price increase was unexpected whereas the 1979-80 increase was largely expected. In this paper, we analyze how an economy's adjustment to expected oil price increases might differ from its adjustment to unexpected increases. By expected oil price increases, we shall mean ones that were anticipated in the past, and by unexpected oil price increases, we shall mean those that were not anticipated in the past but occur unexpectedly in the present. We model this distinction using a three- period model, where the periods are called the past, present and future.
ER  -