NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Rational Expectations, the Expectations Hypothesis, and Treasury Bill Yields: An Econometric Analysis

David S. Jones, V. Vance Roley

NBER Working Paper No. 869 (Also Reprint No. r0461)
Issued in March 1982
NBER Program(s):   ME

This paper tests the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and the expectations model of the term structure for three- and six-month Treasury bills. Previous studies are extended in three directions. First, common efficient markets-rational expectations tests are compared, and it is shown that four of the five tests considered are asymptotically equivalent, and that the fifth is less restrictive than the other four. Second, the joint hypothesis is tested using weekly data for Treasury bills maturing in exactly 13 and 26 weeks beginning in 1970 and ending in 1979. In contrast, previous studies using comparable data have typically discarded 12/13 of the sample to form a nonoverlapping data set. Finally, a more complete set of possible determinants of time-varying term premiums is tested.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w0869

Published: Jones, David S. and V. Vance Roley. "Rational Expectations and the Expectations Model of the Term Structure: A Test Using Weekly Data." Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 12, No. 3 (Spetember 1983), pp. 453- 465. B.V. (North-Holland Publishing).

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