TY  - JOUR
AU  - Shiller,Robert J.
TI  - Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 838
PY  - 1982
Y2  - 1982
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w0838
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w0838.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University, Cowles Foundation
Box 208281
30 Hillhouse Avenue
New Haven, CT  06520-8281
Tel: 203/432-3708
Fax: 203/432-6167
E-Mail: robert.shiller@yale.edu
AB  - A broad exploratory data analysis is conducted to assess the promise of a kind of model in which long-term asset prices change through time primarily due to consumption related changes in the rate of discount. Aggregate consumption data are used to infer ex-post marginal rates of substitution. Prices of stocks, bonds, short debt, land and housing are examined for the period 1890 to 1980, Methods are explored of evaluating this kind of model in the absence of accurate data on consumption.
ER  -