@techreport{NBERw0563,
 title = "Alternative Tests of Rational Expectations Models: The Case of the Term Structure",
 author = "Robert J. Shiller",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Working Paper",
 series = "Working Paper Series",
 number = "563",
 year = "1980",
 month = "October",
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w0563",
 abstract = {A linearized version of the rational expectations models of the term structure is put forth in terms of a complete vector of equally spaced observations along the yield curve. A data series on intermediate maturity yields which meets the specifications of the model is presented. The model is tested against a specific and easily interpreted alternative. Earlier studies of rational expectations models, which used "volatility tests" or "likelihood ratio tests," are discussed.},
}