Are Market Forecasts Rational?
NBER Working Paper No. 507 (Also Reprint No. r0209)
This paper conducts tests of the rationality of both inflation and short-term interest rate forecasts in the bond market. These tests are developed with the theory of efficient markets and make use of security price data to infer information on market expectations.
Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w0507