TY  - JOUR
AU  - Shiller,Robert J.
TI  - Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 348
PY  - 1979
Y2  - May 1979
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w0348
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w0348.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University, Cowles Foundation
Box 208281
30 Hillhouse Avenue
New Haven, CT  06520-8281
Tel: 203/432-3708
Fax: 203/432-6167
E-Mail: robert.shiller@yale.edu
M1  - published as Robert J. Shiller. "Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?," in Stanley Fischer, editor, "Rational Expectations and Economic Policy" University of Chicago Press (1980)

AB  - Three hypotheses concerning the controllability of rationally expected real interest rates are examined here. These hypotheses, which are suggested by recent literature, assert in different senses that the stochastic properties of expected real interest rates are independent of the Fed policy rule. We discuss the meaning and implications of the hypotheses, and how they might be tested. Evaluation of the hypotheses is attempted by examination of the Fed's "quasi-controlled experiments," historical changes in policy regimes, Granger-Sims causality tests, Barro unanticipated money regressions, and other methods. Questions as to the relevance of any such methods are discussed.
ER  -