The Lock-In Effect of the Capital Gains Tax: Some Time Series Evidence

Joel Slemrod

NBER Working Paper No. 257
Issued in July 1978
NBER Program(s):   PE

This study presents time-series evidence indicating that capital gains taxation reduces the realization of capital gains. The "lock-in" effect is detectable once we divide individuals into categories on the basis of how much recent capital gains tax in- creases have affected them. Since the tax law changes, those individeals who are affected have realized significantly ldss capital gains relative to those not affected. This analysis, in `ddition to evidence fpom cross-sectional research reported in Feldstein and Yitzhaki (1978) and Feldstein, Slemrod and Qitzhaki (1978),indicates that estimates of the tax revenue change resulting from a reduction in capital gains taxation based on the assumption of unchanged realized gains may be misleading.

(256 K)

Published: Tax Notes, Vol. VII, No. 6, pp. 134-135, (August 1978). (NOTE: Reprint 147 is based on BOTH this Working Paper - 0257- and Working Paper 0250.)

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