Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-Run Money Demand

Nelson C. Mark, Donggyu Sul

NBER Technical Working Paper No. 287
Issued in December 2002
NBER Program(s):Technical Working Papers

We study the panel DOLS estimator of a homogeneous cointegration vector for a balanced panel of N individuals observed over T time periods. Allowable heterogeneity across individuals include individual-specific time trends, individual-specific fixed effects and time-specific effects. The estimator is fully parametric, computationally convenient, and more precise than the single equation estimator. For fixed N as T approaches infinity, the estimator converges to a function of Brownian motions and the Wald statistic for testing a set of linear constraints has a limiting chi-square distribution. The estimator also has a Gaussian sequential limit distribution that is obtained first by letting T go to infinity then letting N go to infinity. In a series of Monte Carlo experiments, we find that the asymptotic distribution theory provides a reasonably close approximation to the exact finite sample distribution. We use panel dynamic OLS to estimate coefficients of the long-run money demand function from a panel of 19 countries with annual observations that span from 1957 to 1996. The estimated income elasticity is 1.08 (asymptotic s.e.=0.26) and the estimated interest rate semi-elasticity is -0.02 (asymptotic s.e.=0.01).

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/t0287

Published: Mark, Nelson C. and Donggyu Sul. "Cointegration Vector Estimation By Panel DOLS And Long-Run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2003, v65(5,Dec), 665-680.

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