TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kahn,James A.
AU  - Landsburg,Steve
AU  - Stockman,Alan C.
TI  - The Positive Economics of Methodology
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Technical Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 82
PY  - 1989
Y2  - November 1989
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/t0082
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/t0082.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
James Kahn
Economics Department
Yeshiva University
Belfer Hall, 5th Floor
500 W. 185th St
New York, NY 10033
Tel: 212-960-5400 x6964
Fax: 212-960-0846
E-Mail: jkahn1@yu.edu

Alan C. Stockman
Department of Economics
University of Rochester
Rochester, NY  14627-0156
Tel: 585/275-7214
Fax: 585/256-2309
E-Mail: N/A user is deceased
AB  - Does an observation constitute stronger evidence for a theory if it was made after rather than before the theory was formulated, when it may have influenced the theory's construction? Philosophers have discussed this question (of "novel confirmation") but have lacked a formal model of scientific research and incentives. The question applies to all types of research. One example in economics involves evaluating models constructed on the basis of VARs (where a researcher looks at evidence and then constructs a theory) versus structural models with formal econometric tests (where a model is constructed before some of the evidence on it is obtained). This paper develops a simple model of scientific research. It discusses the issues that affect the answer to this question of the timing and theory-construction and observation or experimentation. We also address issues of social versus private incentives in the choice of research strategies, and of socially optimal rewards for researchers in the presence of information and incentive constraints.
ER  -