NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Public Economics: National Budget, Deficit, and Debt


2014
w20200 Enrique G. Mendoza
Linda L. Tesar
Jing Zhang

Saving Europe?: The Unpleasant Arithmetic of Fiscal Austerity in Integrated Economies

w20179 Roberto Perotti
Defense Government Spending Is Contractionary, Civilian Government Spending Is Expansionary

w19985 Anne-Laure Delatte
Julien Fouquau
Richard Portes

Nonlinearities in Sovereign Risk Pricing: The Role of CDS Index Contracts


2013
w19748 Luis Felipe Céspedes
Andrés Velasco

Was This Time Different? Fiscal Policy in Commodity Republics

w19655 Carmen M. Reinhart
Asia Chartbook: Crises, Credit and Debt, 1835-2013

w19652 Carmen M. Reinhart
Takeshi Tashiro

Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation

w19608 Eugene Goryunov
Maria Kazakova
Laurence J. Kotlikoff
Arseny Mamedov
Kristina Nesterova
Vladimir Nazarov
Elena Grishina
Pavel Trunin
Alexey Shpenev

Russia’s Fiscal Gap

w19596 Charles Y. Horioka
Takaaki Nomoto
Akiko Terada-Hagiwara

Why Has Japan's Massive Government Debt Not Wreaked Havoc (Yet)?

w19577 Farley Grubb
The Continental Dollar: How the American Revolution was Financed with Paper Money—Initial Design and Ideal Performance

w19481 Jeffrey B. Liebman
Neale Mahoney

Do Expiring Budgets Lead to Wasteful Year-End Spending? Evidence from Federal Procurement

w19477 Pablo D'Erasmo
Enrique G. Mendoza

Distributional Incentives in an Equilibrium Model of Domestic Sovereign Default

w19470 Anmol Bhandari
David Evans
Mikhail Golosov
Thomas J. Sargent

Taxes, Debts, and Redistributions with Aggregate Shocks

w19431 Gary Hansen
Selo Imrohoroglu

Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective

w19343 Harald Uhlig
Sovereign Default Risk and Banks in a Monetary Union

w19297 David Greenlaw
James D. Hamilton
Peter Hooper
Frederic S. Mishkin

Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy

w19278 Russell Cooper
Kalin Nikolov

Government Debt and Banking Fragility: The Spreading of Strategic Uncertainty

w19253 James D. Hamilton
Off-Balance-Sheet Federal Liabilities

w19125 Joshua Aizenman
Mahir Binici
Michael M. Hutchison

Credit Ratings and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt during the Euro Crisis

w19008 George J. Hall
Thomas J. Sargent

Fiscal Discriminations in Three Wars

w18922 Stéphane Guibaud
Yves Nosbusch
Dimitri Vayanos

Bond Market Clienteles, the Yield Curve, and the Optimal Maturity Structure of Government Debt

w18800 George-Marios Angeletos
Fabrice Collard
Harris Dellas
Behzad Diba

Optimal Public Debt Management and Liquidity Provision

w18797 Robert E. Hall
Fiscal Stability of High-Debt Nations under Volatile Economic Conditions

w18779 Olivier J. Blanchard
Daniel Leigh

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

w18760 Ellen R. McGrattan
Edward C. Prescott

On Financing Retirement with an Aging Population


2012
w18489 Robert Novy-Marx
Joshua D. Rauh

The Revenue Demands of Public Employee Pension Promises

w18423 Alberto F. Alesina
Silvia Ardagna

The design of fiscal adjustments

w18363 Gerardo della Paolera
Alan M. Taylor

Sovereign Debt in Latin America, 1820–1913

w18336 Alberto Alesina
Carlo Favero
Francesco Giavazzi

The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidations

w18303 Luca Guerrieri
Matteo Iacoviello
Raoul Minetti

Banks, Sovereign Debt and the International Transmission of Business Cycles

w18287 Takeo Hoshi
Takatoshi Ito

Defying Gravity: How Long Will Japanese Government Bond Prices Remain High?

w18015 Carmen M. Reinhart
Vincent R. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Debt Overhangs: Past and Present

w18009 Axel H. Börsch-Supan
Entitlement Reforms in Europe: Policy Mixes in the Current Pension Reform Process

w17997 Farley Grubb
Is Paper Money Just Paper Money? Experimentation and Local Variation in the Fiat Paper Monies Issued by the Colonial Governments of British North America, 1690-1775: Part I

w17884 Charles Wyplosz
Fiscal Rules: Theoretical Issues and Historical Experiences

w17862 Mathias Trabandt
Harald Uhlig

How Do Laffer Curves Differ Across Countries?


2011
w17562 Marco Battaglini
Stephen Coate

Fiscal Policy and Unemployment

w17551 Daniel A. Dias
Christine J. Richmond
Mark L.J. Wright

The Stock of External Sovereign Debt: Can We Take the Data At ‘Face Value’?

w17542 Viral V. Acharya
Raghuram G. Rajan

Sovereign Debt, Government Myopia, and the Financial Sector

w17457 Mark A. Aguiar
Manuel Amador

Fiscal Policy in Debt Constrained Economies

w17407 Joshua Aizenman
Michael M. Hutchison
Yothin Jinjarak

What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk

w17305 Takero Doi
Takeo Hoshi
Tatsuyoshi Okimoto

Japanese Government Debt and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy

w17276 Farley Grubb
The Continental Dollar: Initial Design, Ideal Performance, and the Credibility of Congressional Commitment

w17272 Carlo Favero
Francesco Giavazzi
Jacopo Perego

Country Heterogeneity and the International Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy

w17268 Leonard E. Burman
Marvin Phaup

Tax Expenditures, the Size and Efficiency of Government, and Implications for Budget Reform

w17111 Thorsten Drautzburg
Harald Uhlig

Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation

w17082 Eduard Ponds
Clara Severinson
Juan Yermo

Funding in Public Sector Pension Plans - International Evidence

w17055 Luc Behaghel
Didier Blanchet
Thierry Debrand
Muriel Roger

Disability and Social Security Reforms: The French Case

w16956 James D. Hamilton
Jing Cynthia Wu

The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment

w16893 Carmen M. Reinhart
M. Belen Sbrancia

The Liquidation of Government Debt

w16827 Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

A Decade of Debt

w16819 Eric M. Leeper
Todd B. Walker

Fiscal Limits in Advanced Economies

w16786 Roberto Perotti
The Effects of Tax Shocks on Output: Not So Large, But Not Small Either

w16782 Atish R. Ghosh
Jun I. Kim
Enrique G. Mendoza
Jonathan D. Ostry
Mahvash S. Qureshi

Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies


2010
w16505 John F. Cogan
John B. Taylor

What the Government Purchases Multiplier Actually Multiplied in the 2009 Stimulus Package

w16451 Martin S. Feldstein
Preventing a National Debt Explosion

w16346 Agustín S. Bénétrix
Philip R. Lane

International Differences in Fiscal Policy During the Global Crisis

w16207 Charles F. Manski
Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude

w16163 Ryan D. Edwards
A Review of War Costs in Iraq and Afghanistan

w16108 Ryan D. Edwards
U.S. War Costs: Two Parts Temporary, One Part Permanent

w15934 Willem H. Buiter
Urjit R. Patel

Fiscal Rules in India: Are They Effective?

w15815 Carmen M. Reinhart
This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises

w15810 Huixin Bi
Eric M. Leeper

Sovereign Debt Risk Premia and Fiscal Policy in Sweden

w15795 Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis

w15782 Troy Davig
Eric M. Leeper
Todd B. Walker

"Unfunded Liabilities" and Uncertain Fiscal Financing

w15702 George J. Hall
Thomas J. Sargent

Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII U.S. Government Debt/GDP Dynamics


2009
w15562 Joshua Aizenman
Nancy Marion

Using Inflation to Erode the U.S. Public Debt

w15303 Carlo Favero
Francesco Giavazzi

How large are the effects of tax changes?

w15269 Eric M. Leeper
Anchoring Fiscal Expectations

w15028 Farley Grubb
Land Policy: Founding Choices and Outcomes, 1781-1802


2008
w14551 Andrew Mountford
Harald Uhlig

What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?

w14427 Alexander W. Blocker
Laurence J. Kotlikoff
Stephen A. Ross

The True Cost of Social Security

w14417 Ricardo J. Caballero
Pierre Yared

Future Rent-Seeking and Current Public Savings

w14343 Robert Novy-Marx
Joshua D. Rauh

The Intergenerational Transfer of Public Pension Promises

w14288 Alan J. Auerbach
Federal Budget Rules: The US Experience

w14267 Farley Grubb
The Distribution of Congressional Spending During the American Revolution, 1775-1780: The Problem of Geographic Balance

w14087 Robin Greenwood
Samuel Hanson
Jeremy C. Stein

A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice

w14047 Marco Battaglini
Stephen Coate

Fiscal Policy over the Real Business Cycle: A Positive Theory

w13806 Robin Greenwood
Dimitri Vayanos

Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns

w13779 Ricardo J. Caballero
Pierre Yared

Inflating the Beast: Political Incentives Under Uncertainty

w13725 Eli Berman
David D. Laitin

Religion, Terrorism and Public Goods: Testing the Club Model


2007
w13548 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast: The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending

w13390 Emmanuel Farhi
Capital Taxation and Ownership when Markets are Incomplete

w13353 Mark Aguiar
Manuel Amador
Gita Gopinath

Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang

w13255 Christian Broda
David E. Weinstein

Defining Price Stability in Japan: A View from America

w13200 Marco Bassetto
Vadym Lepetyuk

Government Investment and the European Stability and Growth Pact

w13131 Laura Alfaro
Fabio Kanczuk

Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

w13119 Laura Alfaro
Fabio Kanczuk

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

w12947 Enrique G. Mendoza
Jonathan D. Ostry

International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy "Responsible"?

w12919 Willem H. Buiter
Seigniorage

w12859 Francisco J. Gomes
Laurence J. Kotlikoff
Luis M. Viceira

The Excess Burden of Government Indecision

w12822 Carlo Favero
Francesco Giavazzi

Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy


2006
w12586 Enrique G. Mendoza
P. Marcelo Oviedo

Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Developing Countries: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer

w12357 Takero Doi
Toshihiro Ihori
Kiyoshi Mitsui

Sustainability, Debt Management, and Public Debt Policy in Japan

w12344 Jerry Green
Laurence J. Kotlikoff

On the General Relativity of Fiscal Language

w12332 Gene M. Grossman
Elhanan Helpman

Separation of Powers and the Budget Process

w12302 Wilson Au-Yeung
Jason McDonald
Amanda Sayegh

Australian Government Balance Sheet Management

w12265 Young Jun Chun
Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for Korean Economy

w12103 Eric M. Leeper
Shu-Chun Susan Yang

Dynamic Scoring: Alternative Financing Schemes

w12100 Marco Battaglini
Stephen Coate

A Dynamic Theory of Public Spending, Taxation and Debt

w12073 Erik Snowberg
Justin Wolfers
Eric Zitzewitz

Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections


2005
w11868 Farley Grubb
The Net Asset Position of the U.S. National Government, 1784-1802: Hamilton's Blessing or the Spoils of War?

w11862 Adi Brender
Allan Drazen

How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Cross-Section of Countries

w11668 Hans Fehr
Sabine Jokisch
Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China

w11060 Jagadeesh Gokhale
Kent Smetters

Measuring Social Security's Financial Problems

w11030 Marco Bassetto
Thomas Sargent

Politics and Efficiency of Separating Capital and Ordinary Government Budgets


2004
w11000 N. Gregory Mankiw
Matthew Weinzierl

Dynamic Scoring: A Back-of-the-Envelope Guide

w10988 Christian Broda
David E. Weinstein

Happy News from the Dismal Science: Reassessing the Japanese Fiscal Policy and Sustainability

w10931 Ann Dryden Witte
Marisol Trowbridge

The Structure of Early Care and Education in the United States: Historical Evolution and International Comparisons

w10903 Craig Burnside
Domenico Fanizza

Hiccups for HIPCs?

w10788 Silvia Ardagna
Francesco Caselli
Timothy Lane

Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries

w10694 Alan J. Auerbach
Budget Windows, Sunsets, and Fiscal Control

w10394 Francesco Giavazzi
Alessandro Missale

Public Debt Management in Brazil


2003
w10072 Daniel Feenberg
James Poterba

The Alternative Minimum Tax and Effective Marginal Tax Rates

w10040 Casey B. Mulligan
Xavier Sala-i-Martin
Ricard Gil

Do Democracies Have Different Public Policies than Nondemocracies?

w10023 Alan J. Auerbach
Fiscal Policy, Past and Present

w9845 Kent Smetters
Is the Social Security Trust Fund Worth Anything?


2002
w9306 Alan Auerbach
Is There a Role for Discretionary Fiscal Policy?

w9166 John F. Cogan
Olivia S. Mitchell

The Role of Economic Policy in Social Security Reform: Perspectives from the President's Commission

w9132 Alan J. Auerbach
Kevin A. Hassett

Optimal Long-Run Fiscal Policy: Constraints, Preferences and the Resolution of Uncertainty

w9046 Emmanuel Saez
Optimal Progressive Capital Income Taxes in the Infinite Horizon Model


2001
w8646 Alberto Alesina
Ignazio Angeloni
Federico Etro

Institutional Rules for Federations

w8488 Douglas W. Elmendorf
Jeffrey B. Liebman
David W. Wilcox

Fiscal Policy and Social Security Policy During the 1990s

w8163 Laurence J. Kotlikoff
Generational Policy


2000
w7647 Benjamin M. Friedman
What Have We Learned from the Reagan Deficits and Their Disappearance?


1999
w7041 Alan J. Auerbach
Philip Oreopoulos

Generational Accounting and Immigration in the United States

w7036 Alan J. Auerbach
Kevin A. Hassett

Uncertainty and the Design of Long-Run Fiscal Policy


1998
w6522 Willem H. Buiter
Notes on "A Code for Fiscal Stability"

w6470 Douglas W. Elmendorf
N. Gregory Mankiw

Government Debt


1997
w6341 Mark Hallerberg
Jurgen von Hagen

Electoral Institutions, Cabinet Negotiations, and Budget Deficits in the European Union

w6286 Andres Velasco
Debts and Deficits with Fragmented Fiscal Policymaking

w6239 Douglas A. Irwin
Higher Tariffs, Lower Revenues? Analyzing the Fiscal Aspects of the "Great Tariff Debate of 1888"

w6237 James M. Poterba
Kim S. Rueben

State Fiscal Institutions and the U.S. Municipal Bond Market

w6197 Robert J. Barro
Optimal Management of Indexed and Nominal Debt

w6119 Alan J. Auerbach
Quantifying the Current U.S. Fiscal Imbalance

w5997 Herschel I. Grossman
Taejoon Han

Sovereign Debt and Consumption Smoothing

w5890 Allan Drazen
Towards a Political-Economic Theory of Domestic Debt


1996
w5838 Robert P. Inman
Do Balanced Budget Rules Work? U.S. Experience and Possible Lessons for the EMU

w5772 Mats Persson
Torsten Persson
Lars E. O. Svensson

Debt, Cash Flow and Inflation Incentives: A Swedish Example

w5550 James M. Poterba
Do Budget Rules Work?

w5533 Henning Bohn
Robert P. Inman

Balanced Budget Rules and Public Deficits: Evidence from the U.S. States

w5502 Robert J. Barro
Reflections on Ricardian Equivalence

w5449 James M. Poterba
Budget Institutions and Fiscal Policy in the U.S. States


1995
w5109 Herschel I. Grossman
American Fiscal Policy in the 1990's

w5009 Alan J. Auerbach
Tax Projections and the Budget: Lessons from the 1980s


1994
w4709 Alan J. Auerbach
The U.S. Fiscal Problem: Where We Are, How We Got Here and Where We're Going


1993
w4324 Martin Feldstein
Government Spending and Budget Deficits in the 1980s: A Personal View


1992
w4022 Benjamin M. Friedman
Learning From the Reagan Deficits

w3992 Olivier Jean Blanchard
Philippe Weil

Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games Under Uncertainty


1991
w3799 Herschel I. Grossman
Taejoon Han

A Theory of War Finance


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