NBER Papers in JEL Code C1: Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

w23908 Fiona Burlig
Christopher Knittel
David Rapson
Mar Reguant
Catherine Wolfram

Machine Learning from Schools about Energy Efficiency
w23917 Ian Dew-Becker
Charles G. Nathanson

Directed Attention and Nonparametric Learning
w23814 Francis J. DiTraglia
Camilo García-Jimeno

Mis-classified, Binary, Endogenous Regressors: Identification and Inference
w23826 Isaiah Andrews
Emily Oster

Weighting for External Validity
w23775 Jean-Pierre Dubé
Sanjog Misra

Scalable Price Targeting
w23698 Joshua Angrist
Pierre Azoulay
Glenn Ellison
Ryan Hill
Susan Feng Lu

Inside Job or Deep Impact? Using Extramural Citations to Assess Economic Scholarship
w23629 Erik Heitfield
Gary Richardson
Shirley Wang

Contagion During the Initial Banking Panic of the Great Depression
w23602 Catherine Hausman
David S. Rapson

Regression Discontinuity in Time: Considerations for Empirical Applications
w23569 Joachim Freyberger
Bradley J. Larsen

Identification in Ascending Auctions, with an Application to Digital Rights Management
w23544 Michael L. Anderson
Jeremy Magruder

Split-Sample Strategies for Avoiding False Discoveries
w23521 Francesco Bianchi
Giovanni Nicolò

A Generalized Approach to Indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations Models
w23497 James J. Heckman
Rodrigo Pinto

Unordered Monotonicity
w23480 Michael D. Bauer
James D. Hamilton

Robust Bond Risk Premia
w23448 Edward Herbst
Frank Schorfheide

Tempered Particle Filtering
w23298 Isaiah Andrews
Maximilian Kasy

Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias
w23276 Matthew Gentzkow
Bryan T. Kelly
Matt Taddy

Text as Data
w23227 Joachim Freyberger
Andreas Neuhierl
Michael Weber

Dissecting Characteristics Nonparametrically
w22976 Sam Asher
Denis Nekipelov
Paul Novosad
Stephen P. Ryan

Classification Trees for Heterogeneous Moment-Based Models
w22989 Garret S. Christensen
Edward Miguel

Transparency, Reproducibility, and the Credibility of Economics Research
w22933 William D. Nordhaus
Projections and Uncertainties About Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies
w22950 Steven F. Lehrer
R. Vincent Pohl
Kyungchul Song

Targeting Policies: Multiple Testing and Distributional Treatment Effects
w22958 Cosmin L. Ilut
Hikaru Saijo

Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles
w22892 François Gerard
Miikka Rokkanen
Christoph Rothe

Bounds on Treatment Effects in Regression Discontinuity Designs under Manipulation of the Running Variable, with an Application to Unemployment Insurance in Brazil
w22791 Nikolay Doudchenko
Guido W. Imbens

Balancing, Regression, Difference-In-Differences and Synthetic Control Methods: A Synthesis
w22662 Eric M. Leeper
Bing Li

Surplus-Debt Regressions
w22643 Charles F. Manski
Credible Ecological Inference for Personalized Medicine: Formalizing Clinical Judgment
w22650 Kaiji Chen
Patrick Higgins
Daniel F. Waggoner
and Tao Zha

Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China
w22621 Francis DiTraglia
Camilo García-Jimeno

A Framework for Eliciting, Incorporating, and Disciplining Identification Beliefs in Linear Models
w22595 Angus Deaton
Nancy Cartwright

Understanding and Misunderstanding Randomized Controlled Trials
w22490 Cosmin L. Ilut
Rosen Valchev
Nicolas Vincent

Paralyzed by Fear: Rigid and Discrete Pricing under Demand Uncertainty
w22416 Rhys Bidder
Ian Dew-Becker

Long-Run Risk is the Worst-Case Scenario
w22422 Edward C. Prescott
RBC Methodology and the Development of Aggregate Economic Theory
w22401 Ş. Pelin Akyol
James Key
Kala Krishna

Hit or Miss? Test Taking Behavior in Multiple Choice Exams
w22363 Amanda E. Kowalski
Doing More When You're Running LATE: Applying Marginal Treatment Effect Methods to Examine Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Experiments
w22364 Jaroslav Borovička
Lars Peter Hansen

Term Structure of Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy
w22333 Ori Heffetz
Daniel B. Reeves

Difficulty to Reach Respondents and Nonresponse Bias: Evidence from Large Government Surveys
w22308 Kai Yeung
Anirban Basu
Ryan N. Hansen
Sean D. Sullivan

Price Elasticities of Pharmaceuticals in a Value-Based-Formulary Setting
w22225 Anmol Bhandari
Jaroslav Borovička
Paul Ho

Identifying Ambiguity Shocks in Business Cycle Models Using Survey Data
w22183 Drew D. Creal
Jing Cynthia Wu

Bond Risk Premia in Consumption-based Models
w22186 Bryan S. Graham
Homophily and Transitivity in Dynamic Network Formation
w22123 W. Bentley MacLeod
Viewpoint: The Human Capital Approach to Inference
w22098 Bryan S. Graham
Guido W. Imbens
Geert Ridder

Identification and Efficiency Bounds for the Average Match Function under Conditionally Exogenous Matching
w22000 Lars P. Hansen
Thomas J. Sargent

Sets of Models and Prices of Uncertainty
w21961 Raj Chetty
John N. Friedman
Jonah Rockoff

Using Lagged Outcomes to Evaluate Bias in Value-Added Models
w21875 John A. List
Azeem M. Shaikh
Yang Xu

Multiple Hypothesis Testing in Experimental Economics
w21893 Ariel Pakes
Jack Porter

Moment Inequalities for Multinomial Choice with Fixed Effects
w21842 Marcel Fafchamps
Julien Labonne

Using Split Samples to Improve Inference about Causal Effects
w21862 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Juan F. Rubio Ramírez
Frank Schorfheide

Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models
w21778 Edward L. Glaeser
Scott Duke Kominers
Michael Luca
Nikhil Naik

Big Data and Big Cities: The Promises and Limitations of Improved Measures of Urban Life
w21564 Ulrich K. Müller
Mark W. Watson

Low-Frequency Econometrics
w21499 Vahid Montazerhodjat
Andrew W. Lo

Is the FDA Too Conservative or Too Aggressive?: A Bayesian Decision Analysis of Clinical Trial Design
w21486 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Leveraged Bubbles
w21491 Torben G. Andersen
Nicola Fusari
Viktor Todorov

The Pricing of Short-Term market Risk: Evidence from Weekly Options
w21454 Gabriella Conti
James J. Heckman
Rodrigo Pinto

The Effects of Two Influential Early Childhood Interventions on Health and Healthy Behaviors
w21459 Rajeev Dehejia
Cristian Pop-Eleches
Cyrus Samii

From Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment
w21433 Eric M. Leeper
Nora Traum
Todd B. Walker

Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass: Prior and Posterior Analysis
w21391 Damon Jones
The Economics of Exclusion Restrictions in IV Models
w21365 Miles Kimball
Ryan Nunn
Dan Silverman

Accounting for Adaptation in the Economics of Happiness
w21313 Susan Athey
Dean Eckles
Guido W. Imbens

Exact P-values for Network Interference
w21273 Marina Azzimonti
Partisan Conflict and Private Investment
w21228 Nicola Fuchs-Schuendeln
Tarek Alexander Hassan

Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics
w21212 Thibault Fally
Structural Gravity and Fixed Effects
w21125 Patrick Bajari
Victor Chernozhukov
Han Hong
Denis Nekipelov

Identification and Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of a Dynamic Discrete Game
w20955 Patrick Bajari
Denis Nekipelov
Stephen P. Ryan
Miaoyu Yang

Demand Estimation with Machine Learning and Model Combination
w20838 Patrick Kline
Melissa Tartari

Bounding the Labor Supply Responses to a Randomized Welfare Experiment: A Revealed Preference Approach
w20771 Òscar Jordà
Moritz HP. Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Betting the House
w20773 Marinho Bertanha
Guido W. Imbens

External Validity in Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Designs
w20741 Christiane Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Sign Restrictions, Structural Vector Autoregressions, and Useful Prior Information
w20725 Francesco Bianchi
Howard Kung
Gonzalo Morales

Growth, Slowdowns, and Recoveries
w20673 Isaiah Andrews
Matthew Gentzkow
Jesse M. Shapiro

Measuring the Sensitivity of Parameter Estimates to Estimation Moments
w20622 Phillipp Eisenhauer
James J. Heckman
Stefano Mosso

Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models by Maximum Likelihood and the Simulated Method of Moments
w20566 Francesco Bianchi
Leonardo Melosi

Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency
w20523 Dominic Coey
Bradley Larsen
Kane Sweeney

The Bidder Exclusion Effect
w20501 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles
w20472 John M. Abowd
Francis Kramarz
Sébastien Pérez-Duarte
Ian M. Schmutte

Sorting Between and Within Industries: A Testable Model of Assortative Matching
w20444 Elliott Fan
Jin-Tan Liu
Yen-Chien Chen

Is the 'Quarter of Birth' Endogenous? Evidence From One Million Siblings in Taiwan
w20405 Andrew Gelman
Guido Imbens

Why High-order Polynomials Should not be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs
w20362 Anita Castledine
Klaus Moeltner
Michael Price
Shawn Stoddard

Free to Choose: Promoting Conservation by Relaxing Outdoor Watering Restrictions
w20325 Alberto Abadie
Susan Athey
Guido W. Imbens
Jeffrey M. Wooldridge

Finite Population Causal Standard Errors
w20342 Charles E. Gibbons
Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato
Michael B. Urbancic

Broken or Fixed Effects?
w20303 Frank Schorfheide
Dongho Song
Amir Yaron

Identifying Long-Run Risks: A Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Approach
w20194 Francesco Bianchi
Cosmin Ilut

Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs
w20115 Drew D. Creal
Jing Cynthia Wu

Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models with Spanned or Unspanned Stochastic Volatility
w20130 Christian Baker
Jeremy Bejarano
Richard W. Evans
Kenneth L. Judd
Kerk L. Phillips

A Big Data Approach to Optimal Sales Taxation
w20068 Lance Lochner
Youngki Shin

Understanding Earnings Dynamics: Identifying and Estimating the Changing Roles of Unobserved Ability, Permanent and Transitory Shocks
w19959 Guido Imbens
Matching Methods in Practice: Three Examples
w19928 Charles Courtemanche
Joshua C. Pinkston
Jay Stewart

Adjusting Body Mass for Measurement Error with Invalid Validation Data
w19792 Xu Cheng
Zhipeng Liao
Frank Schorfheide

Shrinkage Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models with Structural Instabilities
w19774 Joshua Angrist
The Perils of Peer Effects
w19693 S. Borağan Aruoba
Luigi Bocola
Frank Schorfheide

Assessing DSGE Model Nonlinearities
w19712 Frank Schorfheide
Dongho Song

Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed-Frequency VAR
w19663 Verónica Frisancho
Kala Krishna
Sergey Lychagin
Cemile Yavas

Better Luck Next Time: Learning Through Retaking
w19590 Byeong-Je An
Andrew Ang
Turan G. Bali
Nusret Cakici

The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options
w19567 Steven L. Scott
Hal R. Varian

Bayesian Variable Selection for Nowcasting Economic Time Series
w19565 Frank Schorfheide
Kenneth I. Wolpin

To Hold Out or Not to Hold Out
w19506 Òscar Jordà
Moritz HP. Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences
w19486 Michael J. Dickstein
Eduardo Morales

Accounting for Expectational and Structural Error in Binary Choice Problems: A Moment Inequality Approach
w19457 Roger E.A. Farmer
Vadim Khramov
Giovanni Nicolò

Solving and Estimating Indeterminate DSGE Models
w19450 Charles Courtemanche
Samir Soneji
Rusty Tchernis

Modeling Area-Level Health Rankings
w19453 James J. Heckman
Rodrigo Pinto

Causal Analysis after Haavelmo
w19460 Turan G. Bali
Nusret Cakici
Robert F. Whitelaw

Hybrid Tail Risk and Expected Stock Returns: When Does the Tail Wag the Dog?
w19435 Hanming Fang
Xun Tang

Inference of Bidders' Risk Attitudes in Ascending Auctions with Endogenous Entry
w19316 Orla Doyle
Colm Harmon
James J. Heckman
Caitriona Logue
Seong Moon

Measuring Investment in Human Capital Formation: An Experimental Analysis of Early Life Outcomes
w19243 Timothy N. Bond
Kevin Lang

The Black-White Education-Scaled Test-Score Gap in Grades K-7
w19152 Edward P. Herbst
Frank Schorfheide

Sequential Monte Carlo Sampling for DSGE Models
w19035 Liran Einav
Jonathan D. Levin

The Data Revolution and Economic Analysis
w18983 Martin M. Andreasen
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Juan Rubio-Ramírez

The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: Theory and Empirical Applications
w18861 Carlo Cafiero
What do we Really Know about Food Security?
w18850 Patrick Bajari
Chenghuan Sean Chu
Denis Nekipelov
Minjung Park

A Dynamic Model of Subprime Mortgage Default: Estimation and Policy Implications
w18859 Gary Solon
Steven J. Haider
Jeffrey Wooldridge

What Are We Weighting For?
w18832 Jerome Adda
Christian Dustmann
Costas Meghir
Jean-Marc Robin

Career Progression, Economic Downturns, and Skills
w18719 Jeremy Lise
Costas Meghir
Jean-Marc Robin

Mismatch, Sorting and Wage Dynamics
w18564 David Card
David Lee
Zhuan Pei
Andrea Weber

Nonlinear Policy Rules and the Identification and Estimation of Causal Effects in a Generalized Regression Kink Design
w18467 Domenico Giannone
Michele Lenza
Giorgio E. Primiceri

Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions
w18449 Peter Arcidiacono
Patrick Bayer
Jason R. Blevins
Paul B. Ellickson

Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models in Continuous Time with an Application to Retail Competition
w18399 Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde
Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana
Juan Rubio-Ramírez

Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Models with Stochastic Volatility
w18393 Jean-Pierre H. Dube
Günter J. Hitsch
Pranav Jindal

The Joint Identification of Utility and Discount Functions From Stated Choice Data: An Application to Durable Goods Adoption
w18292 Michael Roach
Wesley M. Cohen

Lens or Prism? Patent Citations as a Measure of Knowledge Flows from Public Research
w18320 Tom Vogl
Race and the Politics of Close Elections
w18258 Péter Hudomiet
Robert J. Willis

Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data
w18231 Robert F. Stambaugh
Jianfeng Yu
Yu Yuan

The Long of It: Odds that Investor Sentiment Spuriously Predicts Anomaly Returns
w18182 Marc J. Melitz
Sašo Polanec

Dynamic Olley-Pakes Productivity Decomposition with Entry and Exit
w18084 Torben G. Andersen
Tim Bollerslev
Peter F. Christoffersen
Francis X. Diebold

Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management
w17960 Timothy N. Bond
Kevin Lang

The Evolution of the Black-White Test Score Gap in Grades K-3: The Fragility of Results
w17882 Arthur Korteweg
Morten Sorensen

Estimating Loan-to-Value and Foreclosure Behavior
w17890 Peter Arcidiacono
Patrick Bayer
Federico A. Bugni
Jonathan James

Approximating High-Dimensional Dynamic Models: Sieve Value Function Iteration
w17755 Charles F. Manski
Identification of Preferences and Evaluation of Income Tax Policy
w17772 James D. Hamilton
Jing Cynthia Wu

Identification and Estimation of Gaussian Affine Term Structure Models
w17698 Jerry A. Hausman
Christopher J. Palmer

Heteroskedasticity-Robust Inference in Finite Samples
w17621 Òscar Jordà
Moritz HP. Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises
w17561 Andrew Ang
Dennis Kristensen

Testing Conditional Factor Models
w17477 Lars Lefgren
Brennan Platt
Joseph Price

Sticking with What (Barely) Worked
w17444 Eric M. Leeper
Nora Traum
Todd B. Walker

Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass
w17408 Alan I. Barreca
Jason M. Lindo
Glen R. Waddell

Heaping-Induced Bias in Regression-Discontinuity Designs
w17317 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana
Keith Kuester
Juan Rubio-Ramírez

Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity
w17334 Jessica A. Wachter
Missaka Warusawitharana

What is the Chance that the Equity Premium Varies over Time? Evidence from Regressions on the Dividend-Price Ratio
w17283 Jeremy T. Fox
Kyoo il Kim

A Simple Nonparametric Approach to Estimating the Distribution of Random Coefficients in Structural Models
w17253 Stephen P. Ryan
Catherine Tucker

Heterogeneity and the Dynamics of Technology Adoption
w17140 Hyungsik Roger Moon
Frank Schorfheide
Eleonora Granziera
Mihye Lee

Inference for VARs Identified with Sign Restrictions
w17150 Òscar Jordà
Alan M. Taylor

Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies
w17112 John P. Papay
John B. Willett
Richard J. Murnane

High-School Exit Examinations and the Schooling Decisions of Teenagers: A Multi-Dimensional Regression-Discontinuity Analysis
w17095 Daniel J. Henderson
John A. List
Daniel L. Millimet
Christopher F. Parmeter
Michael K. Price

Empirical Implementation of Nonparametric First-Price Auction Models
w16997 Victor Chernozhukov
Iván Fernández-Val
Amanda E. Kowalski

Quantile Regression with Censoring and Endogeneity
w16928 Bryan S. Graham
Cristine Campos de Xavier Pinto
Daniel Egel

Efficient Estimation of Data Combination Models by the Method of Auxiliary-to-Study Tilting (AST)
w16900 Anirban Basu
Economics of Individualization in Comparative Effectiveness Research and a Basis for a Patient-Centered Health Care
w16793 Patrick M. Kline
Andres Santos

Higher Order Properties of the Wild Bootstrap Under Misspecification
w16725 Jon Faust
Simon Gilchrist
Jonathan H. Wright
Egon Zakrajsek

Credit Spreads as Predictors of Real-Time Economic Activity: A Bayesian Model-Averaging Approach
w16714 Ulrich K. Müller
James H. Stock

Forecasts in a Slightly Misspecified Finite Order VAR
w16706 Rachael E. Goodhue
Carlo Russo

Modeling Processor Market Power and the Incidence of Agricultural Policy: A Non-parametric Approach
w16679 Kyoo il Kim
Amil Petrin

A New Control Function Approach for Non-Parametric Regressions with Endogenous Variables
w16567 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons
w16566 Joshua Angrist
Ivan Fernandez-Val

ExtrapoLATE-ing: External Validity and Overidentification in the LATE Framework
w16499 Bryan S. Graham
Guido W. Imbens
Geert Ridder

Measuring the Effects of Segregation in the Presence of Social Spillovers: A Nonparametric Approach
w16438 Hanming Fang
Yang Wang

Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Hyperbolic Discounting, with an Application to Mammography Decisions
w16401 Yongsung Chang
Sun-Bin Kim
Frank Schorfheide

Labor-Market Heterogeneity, Aggregation, and the Lucas Critique
w16255 Jessica Wachter
Asset Allocation
w16229 Abdurrahman Aydemir
George J. Borjas

Attenuation Bias in Measuring the Wage Impact of Immigration
w16127 Patrick M. Kline
Andres Santos

A Score Based Approach to Wild Bootstrap Inference
w16073 Nikolai Roussanov
Composition of Wealth, Conditioning Information, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
w16045 Nicole Fortin
Thomas Lemieux
Sergio Firpo

Decomposition Methods in Economics
w16039 Nicholas A. Christakis
James H. Fowler
Guido W. Imbens
Karthik Kalyanaraman

An Empirical Model for Strategic Network Formation
w16003 Costas Meghir
Steven G. Rivkin

Econometric Methods for Research in Education
w16016 John DiNardo
David S. Lee

Program Evaluation and Research Designs
w15928 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Pablo Guerrón-Quintana
Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez

Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data
w15929 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana
Juan Rubio-Ramírez

Reading the Recent Monetary History of the U.S., 1959-2007
w15850 Yacine Aït-Sahalia
Julio Cacho-Diaz
Roger J.A. Laeven

Modeling Financial Contagion Using Mutually Exciting Jump Processes
w15808 Yacine Aït-Sahalia
Jean Jacod

Analyzing the Spectrum of Asset Returns: Jump and Volatility Components in High Frequency Data
w15760 Thomas Barrios
Rebecca Diamond
Guido W. Imbens
Michal Kolesar

Clustering, Spatial Correlations and Randomization Inference
w15716 Patrick Kline
Andres Santos

Sensitivity to Missing Data Assumptions: Theory and An Evaluation of the U.S. Wage Structure
w15675 Russell Cooper
John C. Haltiwanger
Jonathan L. Willis

Euler-Equation Estimation for Discrete Choice Models: A Capital Accumulation Application
w15570 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

Investment Shocks and Business Cycles
w15533 Torben G. Andersen
Dobrislav Dobrev
Ernst Schaumburg

Jump-Robust Volatility Estimation using Nearest Neighbor Truncation
w15375 José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
Frank Schorfheide
Cristina Fuentes-Albero
Maxym Kryshko
Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis

Methods versus Substance: Measuring the Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours
w15318 Yong Chen
Wayne Ferson
Helen Peters

Measuring the Timing Ability and Performance of Bond Mutual Funds
w15301 Alberto Abadie
Guido W. Imbens

Matching on the Estimated Propensity Score
w15226 James J. Heckman
Rosa L. Matzkin
Lars Nesheim

Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of Nonadditive Hedonic Models
w15210 Patrick Bajari
Jeremy T. Fox
Kyoo il Kim
Stephen P. Ryan

A Simple Nonparametric Estimator for the Distribution of Random Coefficients
w15211 Pedro Carneiro
James J. Heckman
Edward J. Vytlacil

Evaluating Marginal Policy Changes and the Average Effect of Treatment for Individuals at the Margin
w15179 James J. Heckman
Petra E. Todd

A Note on Adapting Propensity Score Matching and Selection Models to Choice Based Samples
w15160 Eric M. Leeper
Michael Plante
Nora Traum

Dynamics of Fiscal Financing in the United States
w15122 Partha Deb
William T. Gallo
Padmaja Ayyagari
Jason M. Fletcher
Jody L. Sindelar

Job Loss: Eat, drink and try to be merry?
w15147 Jeremy T. Fox
Amit Gandhi

Identifying Heterogeneity in Economic Choice Models
w15092 Jeremy T. Fox
Identification in Matching Games
w15065 William A. Brock
Steven N. Durlauf

Adoption Curves and Social Interactions
w15047 Raymond Kan
Cesare Robotti
Jay Shanken

Pricing Model Performance and the Two-Pass Cross-Sectional Regression Methodology
w15025 Roger Farmer
Carine Nourry
Alain Venditti

Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons: The Stochastic Case
w14995 Jeffrey E. Harris
Sandra G. Sosa-Rubi

Impact of "Seguro Popular" on Prenatal Visits in Mexico, 2002-2005: Latent Class Model of Count Data with a Discrete Endogenous Variable
w14934 Patrick Bajari
Jeremy Fox
Kyoo il Kim
Stephen P. Ryan

The Random Coefficients Logit Model Is Identified
w14882 Hyungsik Roger Moon
Frank Schorfheide

Bayesian and Frequentist Inference in Partially Identified Models
w14896 Guido W. Imbens
Better LATE Than Nothing: Some Comments on Deaton (2009) and Heckman and Urzua (2009)
w14860 Bryan S. Graham
Guido W. Imbens
Geert Ridder

Complementarity and Aggregate Implications of Assortative Matching: A Nonparametric Analysis
w14872 Frank Schorfheide
Keith Sill
Maxym Kryshko

DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-modelled Variables
w14776 Marc-Andreas Muendler
Sascha O. Becker

Margins of Multinational Labor Substitution
w14756 Alberto Abadie
Guido Imbens

A Martingale Representation for Matching Estimators
w14723 David S. Lee
Thomas Lemieux

Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics
w14726 Guido Imbens
Karthik Kalyanaraman

Optimal Bandwidth Choice for the Regression Discontinuity Estimator
w14710 Roger E.A. Farmer
Tao Zha
Daniel F. Waggoner

Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models
w14666 Jesse Rothstein
Student sorting and bias in value added estimation: Selection on observables and unobservables
w14677 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
The Econometrics of DSGE Models
w14573 Kasey Buckles
Daniel M. Hungerman

Season of Birth and Later Outcomes: Old Questions, New Answers
w14469 Bryan S. Graham
James Powell

Identification and Estimation of 'Irregular' Correlated Random Coefficient Models
w14447 Debopam Bhattacharya
Pascaline Dupas

Inferring Welfare Maximizing Treatment Assignment under Budget Constraints
w14414 Liran Einav
Amy Finkelstein
Mark R. Cullen

Estimating Welfare in Insurance Markets Using Variation in Prices
w14399 Raj Chetty
Sufficient Statistics for Welfare Analysis: A Bridge Between Structural and Reduced-Form Methods
w14292 M. Ayhan Kose
Christopher Otrok
Eswar S. Prasad

Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?
w14376 Bryan S. Graham
Efficiency bounds for missing data models with semiparametric restrictions
w14382 Jeremy T. Fox
Estimating Matching Games with Transfers
w14367 Bridget Terry Long
Michal Kurlaender

Do Community Colleges provide a Viable Pathway to a Baccalaureate Degree?
w14297 Daniel L. Millimet
Rusty Tchernis
Muna Husain

School Nutrition Programs and the Incidence of Childhood Obesity
w14284 Han Hong
Bruce Preston

Bayesian Averaging, Prediction and Nonnested Model Selection
w14215 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Martin Uribe

What's News in Business Cycles
w14194 Juan Carlos Calcagno
Bridget Terry Long

The Impact of Postsecondary Remediation Using a Regression Discontinuity Approach: Addressing Endogenous Sorting and Noncompliance
w14161 Joseph G. Altonji
Hidehiko Ichimura
Taisuke Otsu

Estimating Derivatives in Nonseparable Models with Limited Dependent Variables
w14080 Christopher R. Knittel
Konstantinos Metaxoglou

Estimation of Random Coefficient Demand Models: Challenges, Difficulties and Warnings
w13999 Pedro Dal Bó
Andrew Foster
Louis Putterman

Institutions and Behavior: Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Democracy
w13981 Bryan S. Graham
Cristine Campos de Xavier Pinto
Daniel Egel

Inverse Probability Tilting for Moment Condition Models with Missing Data
w13949 Patrick Bayer
Shakeeb Khan
Christopher Timmins

Nonparametric Identification and Estimation in a Generalized Roy Model
w13905 Raj Arunachalam
Trevon Logan

Is There Dowry Inflation in South Asia?
w13788 Matthew Cary
Aparna Das
Benjamin Edelman
Ioannis Giotis
Kurtis Heimerl
Anna R. Karlin
Claire Mathieu
Michael Schwarz

On Best-Response Bidding in GSP Auctions
w13787 Marcelo Moreira
A Maximum Likelihood Method for the Incidental Parameter Problem
w13741 Marco Del Negro
Frank Schorfheide

Forming Priors for DSGE Models (and How it Affects the Assessment of Nominal Rigidities)
w13749 Timothy Cogley
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Thomas J. Sargent

Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S.
t0344 A. Colin Cameron
Jonah B. Gelbach
Douglas L. Miller

Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors
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William B. Vogt

Do Instrumental Variables Belong in Propensity Scores?
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Alexander Kurshev
Raman Uppal

Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility
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Deterministic and Stochastic Prisoner's Dilemma Games: Experiments in Interdependent Security
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Nicole M. Fortin
Thomas Lemieux

Unconditional Quantile Regressions
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Amy Finkelstein
Paul Schrimpf

The Welfare Cost of Asymmetric Information: Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market
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Missaka Warusawitharana

Predictable Returns and Asset Allocation: Should a Skeptical Investor Time the Market?
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How Structural Are Structural Parameters?
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Amy Finkelstein
Paul Schrimpf

The Welfare Cost of Asymmetric Information: Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market
w13134 Kenneth D. West
Ka-fu Wong
Stanislav Anatolyev

Instrumental Variables Estimation of Heteroskedastic Linear Models Using All Lags of Instruments
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Ka-fu Wong
Stanislav Anatolyev

Instrumental Variables Estimation of Heteroskedastic Linear Models Using All Lags of Instruments
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Robert Dittmar
Dana Kiku

Cointegration and Consumption Risks in Asset Returns
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Thomas Lemieux

Regression Discontinuity Designs: A Guide to Practice
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Thomas Lemieux

Regression Discontinuity Designs: A Guide to Practice
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Luca Benzoni

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Dobrislav Dobrev

No-Arbitrage Semi-Martingale Restrictions for Continuous-Time Volatility Models subject to Leverage Effects, Jumps and i.i.d. Noise: Theory and Testable Distributional Implications
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Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Economic Risk
w12922 Arianna Degan
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Do Voters Vote Sincerely?
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t0332 Jean Boivin
Marc Giannoni

DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment
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Marc Giannoni

DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment
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Victor Chernozhukov
Muhamet Yildiz

Learning and Disagreement in an Uncertain World
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Oscar A. Mitnik

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Robust Inference with Multi-way Clustering
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Han Hong
Ahmed Khwaja

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w12422 Kyoji Fukao
Keiko Ito
Hyeog Ug Kwon
Miho Takizawa

Cross-Border Acquisitions and Target Firms' Performance: Evidence From Japanese Firm-Level Data
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Jeremy T. Fox
Stephen Ryan

Evaluating Wireless Carrier Consolidation Using Semiparametric Demand Estimation
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Martin Eichenbaum
Robert Vigfusson

Assessing Structural VARs
t0323 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression
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V. Joseph Hotz
Guido W. Imbens
Oscar A. Mitnik

Nonparametric Tests for Treatment Effect Heterogeneity
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Guido W. Imbens

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H.N. Nagaraja

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Andrew F. Siegel

Testing Portfolio Efficiency with Conditioning Information
t0322 David S. Lee
David Card

Regression Discontinuity Inference with Specification Error
t0320 Patrick Bajari
Han Hong

Semiparametric Estimation of a Dynamic Game of Incomplete Information
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Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez

Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach
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Han Hong
John Krainer
Denis Nekipelov

Estimating Static Models of Strategic Interaction
w11939 V. Joseph Hotz
Guido W. Imbens
Jacob A. Klerman

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w11824 Andrew Ang
Joseph Chen
Yuhang Xing

Downside Risk
w11758 Bruce N. Lehmann
The Role of Beliefs in Inference for Rational Expectations Models
w11775 Torben G. Andersen
Tim Bollerslev
Francis X. Diebold

Roughing it Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling and Forecasting of Return Volatility
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Per A. Mykland
Yacine Ait-Sahalia

Edgeworth Expansions for Realized Volatility and Related Estimators
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Juan Rubio
Manuel Santos

Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models
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John Haltiwanger
Adriana Kugler
Maurice Kugler

Factor Adjustments After Deregulation: Panel Evidence from Colombian Plants
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Jeremy T. Fox

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w11628 David H. Autor
Lawrence F. Katz
Melissa S. Kearney

Rising Wage Inequality: The Role of Composition and Prices
w11517 Elena Tchernykh
William H. Branson

Regime-Switching Behavior of the Term Structure of Forward Markets
w11523 Andrew T. Levin
Alexei Onatski
John C. Williams
Noah Williams

Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models
w11487 Junsoo Lee
John A. List
Mark Strazicich

Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?
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Juan Rubio-Ramirez
Thomas J. Sargent

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Edward Vytlacil

Structural Equations, Treatment Effects and Econometric Policy Evaluation
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Azeem Shaikh
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Treatment Effect Bounds: An Application to Swan-Ganz Catheterization
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Edward Vytlacil

Structural Equations, Treatment Effects and Econometric Policy Evaluation
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Brian C. Moyer
Sumiye Okubo
Mark A. Planting

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w11188 Torben G. Andersen
Tim Bollerslev
Peter F. Christoffersen
Francis X. Diebold

Volatility Forecasting
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Guido M. Kuersteiner

Semiparametric Causality Tests Using the Policy Propensity Score
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Bootstrap and Higher-Order Expansion Validity When Instruments May Be Weak
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Marcelo J. Moreira

Optimal Inference in Regression Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors
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Ryan Taliaferro
Jeffrey Wurgler

Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions
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Mark Glickman
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A Revealed Preference Ranking of U.S. Colleges and Universities
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Han Hong
Stephen Ryan

Identification and Estimation of Discrete Games of Complete Information
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Contingent Reserves Management: An Applied Framework
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Adlai J. Fisher
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James H. Stock

Optimal Invariant Similar Tests for Instrumental Variables Regression
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David Hummels
Maros Ivanic
Roman Keeney

How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?
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Victor Chernozhukov
Ivan Fernandez-Val

Quantile Regression under Misspecification, with an Application to the U.S. Wage Structure
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Robustness of Productivity Estimates
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Common Sense and Simplicity in Empirical Industrial Organization
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Jonah Gelbach
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What Mean Impacts Miss: Distributional Effects of Welfare Reform Experiments
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Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments
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Hedonic Price Indexes with Unobserved Product Characteristics, and Application to PC's
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What Happens After a Technology Shock?
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Hedging Sudden Stops and Precautionary Contractions
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Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Latent Affine Processes
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Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-Run Money Demand
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Guido W. Imbens

Simple and Bias-Corrected Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects
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John Rust

Econometric Methods for Endogenously Sampled Time Series: The Case of Commodity Price Speculation in the Steel Market
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Tim Bollerslev
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Parametric and Nonparametric Volatility Measurement
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Factor Price Equalization in the UK?
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Esther Duflo
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Andrew Kaplin
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An Evaluation of Multi-Factor CIR Models Using LIBOR, Swap Rates, and Cap and Swaption Prices
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Joseph Chen
Yuhang Xing

Downside Risk and the Momentum Effect
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Ane Tamayo

Risk, Mispricing, and Asset Allocation: Conditioning on Dividend Yield
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Holger Sieg
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Living Rationally Under the Volcano? An Empirical Analysis of Heavy Drinking and Smoking
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Gautam Gowrisankaran
Robert J. Town

Bayesian Inference for Hospital Quality in a Selection Model
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C. Lanier Benkard

Demand Estimation With Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach
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Geert Bekaert

Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?
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Tim Bollerslev
Francis X. Diebold
Paul Labys

Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility
w8041 William A. Brock
Steven N.Durlauf

Growth Economics and Reality
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Atsushi Inoue

Long Memory and Regime Switching
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Justin L. Tobias
Edward Vytlacil

Simple Estimators for Treatment Parameters in a Latent Variable Framework with an Application to Estimating the Returns to Schooling
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Semiparametric Estimation of Instrumental Variable Models for Causal Effects
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Bootstrap Tests for the Effect of a Treatment on the Distribution of an Outcome Variable
t0257 Dean R. Hyslop
Guido W. Imbens

Bias from Classical and Other Forms of Measurement Error
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Steven N. Durlauf

Interactions-Based Models
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Todd E. Elder
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Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools
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Was There a Riverside Miracle? A Framework for Evaluating Multi-Site Programs
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Trade Liberalization, Exit, and Productivity Improvements: Evidence from Chilean Plants
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Robust Covariance Matrix Estimation with Data-Dependent VAR Prewhitening Order
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Jay Shanken

Estimation Risk, Market Efficiency, and the Predictability of Returns
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A Heuristic Method for Extracting Smooth Trends from Economic Time Series
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Causal Parameters and Policy Analysis in Economcs: A Twentieth Century Retrospective
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Simone Manganelli

CAViaR: Conditional Value at Risk by Quantile Regression
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Cecilia Elena Rouse
Douglas Staiger

Estimating Returns to Schooling When Schooling is Misreported
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Terry J. Fitzgerald

The Band Pass Filter
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Predictive Regressions
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Jinyong Hahn

When to Control for Covariates? Panel-Asymptotic Results for Estimates of Treatment Effects
w7131 Jinyong Hahn
Petra Todd
Wilbert Van der Klaauw

Evaluating the Effect of an Antidiscrimination Law Using a Regression-Discontinuity Design
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Geert Bekaert

International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Correlations
w6927 Daniel S. Hamermesh
The Art of Labormetrics
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Lutz Kilian

Unit Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models
w6944 Steven D. Levitt
Jack Porter

Estimating the Effect of Alcohol on Driver Risk Using Only Fatal Accident Statistics
w6954 Rajeev Dehejia
Program Evaluation as a Decision Problem
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Sadek Wahba

Propensity Score Matching Methods for Non-experimental Causal Studies
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Matias Eklof
Whitney Newey

Tax Reform Evaluation Using Nonparametric Methods: Sweden 1980 - 1991
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Sara Fisher Ellison

A Simple Framework for Nonparametric Specification Testing
w6699 James Heckman
Hidehiko Ichimura
Jeffrey Smith
Petra Todd

Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data
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Tim Bollerslev
Ashish Das

Testing for Market Microstructure Effects in Intraday Volatility: A Reassessment of the Tokyo FX Experiment
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Sadek Wahba

Causal Effects in Non-Experimental Studies: Re-Evaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs
w6533 Jason G. Cummins
Taxation and the Sources of Growth: Estimates from United States Multinational Corporations
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Joshua D. Angrist
Guido W. Imbens

Instrumental Variables Estimation of Quantile Treatment Effects
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Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-Form Approach
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Anthony S. Tay
Kenneth F. Wallis

Evaluating Density Forecasts of Inflation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters
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Bruno Crepon
Francis Kramarz

Moment Estimation with Attrition
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Menzie D. Chinn

Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP
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Stephen G. Cecchetti

Inflation and the Distribution of Price Changes
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Jonathan Wright

Asymptotics for GMM Estimators with Weak Instruments
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Specification Testing in Panel Data With Instrumental Variables
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Andrew T. Levin

A Practitioner's Guide to Robust Covariance Matrix Estimation
w5631 David Neumark
William Wascher

Is the Time-Series Evidence on Minimum Wage Effects Contaminated by Publication Bias?
t0195 Wouter J. Den Haan
Andrew Levin

Inferences from Parametric and Non-Parametric Covariance Matrix Estimation Procedures
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David W. Wilcox

Generating Non-Standard Multivariate Distributions with an Application to Mismeasurement in the CPI
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Til Schuermann

Exact Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Observation-Driven Econometric Models
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Dynamic Equilibrium and Volatility in Financial Asset Markets
w5314 David Genesove
Wallace P. Mullin

Validating the Conjectural Variation Method: The Sugar Industry, 1890- 1914
t0184 James J. Heckman
Randomization as an Instrumental Variable
t0185 James J. Heckman
Instrumental Variables: A Cautionary Tale
w5093 John DiNardo
Nicole M. Fortin
Thomas Lemieux

Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach
t0176 Kenneth D. West
David W. Wilcox

A Comparison of Alternative Instruments Variables Estimators of a Dynamic Linear Model
t0177 Lawrence J. Christiano
Wouter J. Den Haan

Small Sample Properties of GMM for Business Cycle Analysis
t0144 Kenneth D. West
Whitney K. Newey

Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation
t0173 Francis X. Diebold
Jose A. Lopez

Measuring Volatility Dynamics
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Lee E. Ohanian
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Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: A Framework for Comparing Models and Data
t0170 Bruce D. Meyer
Natural and Quasi- Experiments in Economics
t0171 Michael T. K. Horvath
Mark W. Watson

Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known
t0169 Francis X. Diebold
Robert S. Mariano

Comparing Predictive Accuracy
t0159 Andrew B. Bernard
Steven N. Durlauf

Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis
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Martin Eichenbaum

Small Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Based Wald Tests
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Jose Alexandre Scheinkman

Back to the Future: Generating Moment Implications for Continuous-Time Markov Processes
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Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data

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