Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation

Ray C. Fair, Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting (University of Chicago Press, 1993), chap. 3, https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/business-cycles-indicators-and-forecasting/estimating-event-probabilities-macroeconometric-models-using-stochastic-simulation.