@inbook{NBERc1088,
 Crossref = "NBERfels68-1",
 title = "PART 1 1948—61: Degree of Certainty ",
 author = "Rendigs Fels and C. Elton Hinshaw",
 BookTitle = "Forecasting and Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points",
 Publisher = "Columbia University Press",
 pages = "19-24",
 year = "1968",
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/chapters/c1088",
}
@book{NBERfels68-1,
 title = "Forecasting and Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points",
 author = "Rendigs Fels and C. Elton Hinshaw",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Book",
 publisher = "Columbia University Press",
 year = "1968",
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/books/fels68-1",
}