National Bureau of Economic Research
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Crowd-Out of Employer-Provided Health Insurance by the Affordable Care Act
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The Affordable Care Act (ACA) reshaped how Americans obtain health insurance by expanding Medicaid eligibility and creating Marketplace exchanges for subsidized private plans. In How Efficient Was the Affordable Care Act at Reducing Uninsured Rates? (NBER Working Paper 35263), Anuj Gangopadhyaya and Robert Kaestner exploit variation in the timing of ACA implementation and Medicaid expansion across states to assess the impact of access to publicly supported coverage on the fraction of the population that is uninsured and that has employer-sponsored insurance (ESI). The researchers use data from the 2008–2024 American Community...
From the NBER Reporter: Research, program, and conference summaries
Innovative Investments in Local Jails
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In research conducted in collaboration with Arkey Barnett at the University of Michigan and Meghan Beal at the National Sheriffs’ Association, we investigate the effects of innovative investments in local jails that aim to improve health and rehabilitation outcomes for incarcerated individuals and their communities. The US has one of the highest incarceration rates in the world, with nearly 2 million people detained in correctional facilities every year. While most people are held in state or federal prisons, local jails house 546,000 individuals across 3,116 facilities, the majority of whom are not convicted. Local jails serve as the front door to the criminal justice system, with more than 7.6 million admissions per year and a significant share of those released being rebooked within the same year, revealing a persistent…
From the NBER Bulletin on Health
How Inspection Timing Affects Care Quality in US Nursing Homes
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Nursing homes certified by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to provide care and receive public reimbursement through Medicare and Medicaid are subject to mandatory annual inspections. While inspections are unannounced, they typically occur on an approximately yearly basis, as 74 percent of inspections take place between 40 and 60 weeks after the previous one. The average gap is around 53 weeks. Due to the cyclical nature of inspections, nursing home operators are able to anticipate when an inspection is likely and adjust their behavior accordingly. They appear to devote more effort to patient care when inspections are approaching.
In Predictably Unpredictable Inspections (NBER Working Paper 34491), Ashvin Gandhi, Andrew Olenski, and Maggie Shi study how the predictability of nursing home inspections shapes facility effort and patient...
From the NBER Bulletin on Entrepreneurship
Mixed Immigrant-Native Founding Teams Excel
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Roughly one-quarter of new employer businesses in the United States are started by immigrants. Immigrant inventors have been responsible for approximately 23 percent of US patents produced since 1976 despite making up only 16 percent of the total US-based inventor population. Yet immigrant entrepreneurs usually do not build companies in isolation—many cofound startups alongside US-born entrepreneurs. In Native-Immigrant Entrepreneurial Synergies (NBER Working Paper 33804), Zhao Jin, Amir Kermani, and Timothy McQuade examine whether startups cofounded by immigrant and native entrepreneurs outperform those with founders from exclusively one...
Featured Working Papers
Using weekly state-level data from 1987 to 2024, Kimberly A. Berg, Chadwick C. Curtis, and Nelson C. Mark find that a 1°C temperature increase briefly improves economic conditions before the cumulative effect turns negative after about 10 weeks and deepens through a trough around 85 weeks out. Losses are larger in states with warmer baseline climates.
Tracking the first jobs of over 120,000 Ivy League graduates, Paul Gompers, George Hu, Will Levinson, and Sachin Srivastava find that a firm employing one additional alum from a specific collegiate sports team is about twice as likely than baseline to hire another athlete from that same team.
Net immigration of one percent of the destination country’s adult population from non-OECD countries to OECD countries is associated with 1.9 percent faster growth in GDP per worker over 10 years, according to Gaetano Basso, Mitali R. Mathur, and Giovanni Peri. The gains are concentrated among high-skilled immigrants, who accounted for about half of inflows into Western Europe over the 2000–2020 period.
Between 1980 and 2019, an increase in US R&D spending shock equal to about 1 percent of the federal R&D capital stock raised foreign total factor productivity by 1 percent after 12 years, according to Gustavo De Souza, Andrew J. Fieldhouse, Karel Mertens, Ishan B. Nath, and Valerie A. Ramey. They estimate that global social returns to US public nondefense R&D are twice domestic returns.
After online listing platforms began displaying property-level flood scores, homes labeled "extreme" flood risk sold at a 3.3 percent discount on average, and at a multiple of that discount in coastal areas, relative to otherwise similar homes with "severe" risk , according to Stephen B. Billings, Sophie Calder-Wang, and Weiling Liu.
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