Political Preferences and Transport Infrastructure: Evidence from California’s High-Speed Rail
Working Paper 31438
DOI 10.3386/w31438
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We study how political preferences shaped California’s High-Speed Rail (CHSR), a large transportation project approved by referendum in 2008. Across census tracts, support for the project responded significantly to the projected economic gains at the time of voting, as measured by a quantitative model of high-speed rail matched to CHSR plans. We estimate that 0.1%- 0.2% projected economic gains swayed 1% of votes at the median tract. Given this elasticity, a revealed-preference approach comparing the CHSR with counterfactual designs identifies strong policymakers’ preferences for political support. A politically-blind planner would have placed the stations nearer to California’s dense metro areas, doubling the projected economic gains.