Young Ki Lee
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|December 1983||The Forecasting Ability of Money Market Fund Managers and its Economic Value|
with Alex Kane: w1243
The model proposed by Merton(1981) to determine the value of forecasting ability is adapted to investigate whether money market fund managers successfully anticipate changes in the yield curve by adjusting the average maturity of their portfolios in the right direction. The potential economic value of such behavior is assessed, and it is shown that if the portfolios of all money market funds were aggregated it would appear that managers are good forecasters even if individually they possess insignifcant forecasting ability. At the same time, the economic value of the aggregate portfolio will be diminished because of the reduced net change in average maturity. Thus, diversifying into many money market funds will not attain the gain that could be realized if an individual manager had a forec...
|Earnings and Dividend Announcements is there a Corroboration Effect?|
with Alex Kane, Alan J. Marcus: w1248
We examine abnormal stock returns surrounding contemporaneous earnings and dividend announcements in order to determine whether investors evaluate the two announcements in relation to each other.We find that there is a statistically significant interaction effect.The abnormal return corresponding to any earnings or dividend announcement depends upon the value of the other announcement. This evidence suggests the existence of a corroborative relationship between the two announcements. Investors give more credence to unanticipated dividend increases or decreases when earnings are also above or below expectations, and vice versa.
Published: Kane, Alex, Young Ki Lee, and Alan J. Marcus. "Earnings and Dividend Announcements: Is There a Corroboration Effect?" Journal of Finance, Vol. 39, No. 4, (September 1984), pp. 1091-1099. citation courtesy of