William T. Bogart
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|October 1992||Incidence and Allocation Effects of a State Fiscal Policy Shift: The Florio Initiatives in New Jersey|
with David F. Bradford, Michael G. Williams: w4177
We calculate the incidence of recent changes to the New Jersey state tax system on a sample of homeowners. Our analysis distinguishes between business-as-usual responses to an evolving fiscal situation and tax changes that constitute a surprise. The latter have incidence effects; the former do not. We conclude that, if the changes carried out by NJ Governor Jim Florio are regarded as permanent, they effected a one-time wealth redistribution from, on average, higher-income homeowners toward lower-income homeowners and from owners of suburban residential property toward owners of urban residential property. Although effects on the averages for identifiable groups are clear and significant there is very considerable variation in the effects on individual homeowners within groups. We also esti...
Published: National Tax Journal, Vol. XLV, No. 4, pp. 371-387 (December 1992).