University of Southern California
School of Policy, Planning, and Development
650 Childs Way, RGL 305
Los Angeles, CA 90089
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|March 2011||The Long-term Impact of Medicare Payment Reductions on Patient Outcomes|
with Yu-Chu Shen: w16859
This study examines the long term impact of Medicare payment reductions on patient outcomes using a natural experiment - the Balance Budget Act (BBA) of 1997. We use predicted Medicare revenue changes due to BBA, with simulated BBA payment cuts as an instrument, to categorize hospitals by degrees of payment cuts (small, moderate, or large), and follow Medicare patient outcomes in these hospitals over a 11 year panel: 1995-1997 pre-BBA, 1998-2000 initial years of BBA, and 2001-2005 post-BBA years. We find that Medicare AMI mortality trends stay similar across hospitals when comparing between pre-BBA and initial-BBA periods. However, the trends began to diverge in 2001-2005: hospitals facing large payment cuts saw increased mortality rates relative to that of hospitals facing small cuts in ...
Published: Vivian Y. Wu & Yu-Chu Shen, 2014. "Long-Term Impact of Medicare Payment Reductions on Patient Outcomes," Health Services Research, vol 49(5), pages 1596-1615.
|February 2008||The Changing Effect of HMO Market Structure: An Analysis of Penetration, Concentration, and Ownership Between 1994-2005|
with Yu-Chu Shen, Glenn Melnick: w13775
We analyze the role of three aspects of HMO market structure -- HMO penetration, HMO plan concentration, and HMO for-profit share on explaining hospital cost and revenue growth during the HMO expansion period (1994-1999) and backlash period (2000-2005). We find that HMO penetration effects differ over time: a 10 percentage point increase in HMO enrollment leads to 2.5 percent reduction in cost and revenues in the expansion period but only 0.4-1 percent reduction in the backlash period. Furthermore, this HMO backlash effect can be attributed to HMO dis-enrollment as well as the changing nature of HMO product. We find that revenue increases at a slower rate (by about 5 percent) in markets with relatively concentrated HMO markets power and more competitive hospital markets. Finally, increa...
Published: Shen, Y., Wu, V., and Melnick, G. 2010. Trends in Hospital Cost and Revenue, 1994-2005: How Are They Related to HMO Penetration, Concentration and For-Profit Ownership. Health Services Research, 45 (1): 42-61.