NBER Working Papers and Publications
|October 1998||Valuation and Return Dynamics of New Ventures|
with Jonathan B. Berk, Richard C. Green: w6745
We develop and analyze a model of a multi-stage investment project that captures many features of R&D ventures and start-up companies. An important feature these problems share is that the firm learns about the potential profitability of the project throughout its life, but that research and development effort itself is only resolved through additional investment by the firm. In addition, the risks associated with the ultimate cash flows the firm realizes on completion of the project have a systematic component, while the purely technical risks are idiosyncratic. Our model captures these different sources of risk, and allows us to study their interaction in determining the risk premia earned by the venture during development. Our results show that the systematic risk, and the required r...
Published: Jonathan B. Berk, 2004. "Valuation and Return Dynamics of New Ventures," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 1-35.
|June 1998||Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns|
with Jonathan Berk, Richard C. Green: w6627
As a consequence of optimal investment choices, firms' assets and growth options change in predictable ways. Using a dynamic model, we show that this imparts predictability to changes in a firm's systematic risk, and its expected return. Simulations show that the model simultaneously reproduces: (i) the time series relation between the book-to-market ratio and asset returns, (ii) the cross-sectional relation between book to market, market value and return, (iii) contrarian effects at short horizons, (iv) momentum effects at longer horizons, and (v) the inverse relation between interest rates and the market risk premium.
Published: Journal of Finance, Vol. 54 (1999): 1553-1608. citation courtesy of