NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Urjit R. Patel

Reliance Industries Ltd.
222 Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021
INDIA

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

April 2010Fiscal Rules in India: Are They Effective?
with Willem H. Buiter: w15934
This paper, a chapter in the forthcoming Oxford University Press Handbook of the Indian Economy, edited by Chetan Ghate, considers India's experience with fiscal (responsibility) rules during the past decade. After reviewing the basic facts concerning public debt and deficits in India, the background and basic arithmetic of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003 (FRBMA) are presented and commented upon. With the very small number of data points at our disposal, no formal statistical estimation and hypothesis testing about the efficacy of the rules can even be attempted. Instead we critically explore the outcomes of the FRBMA over the 5-year period of its operation, 2004/05-2008/09, using an eclectic but comprehensive metric comprising quantitative targets, qualitative st...

Published: "Fiscal Rules in India: Are th ey Effective?", with Urjit R. Patel, Chapter 21 in Chetan Ghate ed. The Oxford Handbook of the Indian Economy , pp 621-655, Oxford University Press, Oxford, New York, 2012.

March 1990Debt, Deficits and Inflation: An Application to the Public Finances of India
with Willem H. Buiter: w3287
The paper studies the solvency of the Indian public sector and the eventual monetization and inflation implied by stabilization of the debt-GNP ratio without any changes in the primary deficit. The nonstationarity of the discounted public debt suggests that indefinite continuation of the pattern of behavior reflected in the historical discounted debt process is inconsistent with the maintenance of solvency. This message is reinforced by the recent behavior of the debt-GNP ratio and the ratio of primary surplus plus seigniorage to GNP. Our estimates of the base money demand function suggest that even maximal use of seigniorage will not be sufficient to restore solvency.

Published: Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 47, pp. 171-205, (1992). citation courtesy of

 
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