Todd A. Gunther
University of Pennsylvania
Institutional Affiliation: University of Pennsylvania
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|October 1997||Evaluating Density Forecasts|
with Francis X. Diebold, Anthony S. Tay: t0215
We propose methods for evaluating density forecasts. We focus primarily on methods" that are applicable regardless of the particular user's loss function. We illustrate the methods" with a detailed simulation example, and then we present an application to density forecasting of" daily stock market returns. We discuss extensions for improving suboptimal density forecasts multi-step-ahead density forecast evaluation, multivariate density forecast evaluation for structural change and its relationship to density forecasting, and density forecast evaluation" with known loss function.
Published: (newly titled "Evaluating Density Forecasts, with Applications to Financial Risk Management") International Economic Review, Vol. 39 (1998): 863-883.