Bank of England
London EC2R 8AH
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|July 2004||The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth, or Does Information Technology Explain Why Productivity Accelerated in the United States But Not in the United Kingdom?|
with Susanto Basu, John G. Fernald, Nicholas Oulton
in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, editors
|October 2003||The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?|
with Susanto Basu, John G. Fernald, Nicholas Oulton: w10010
We argue that unmeasured investments in intangible organizational capital associated with the role of information and communications technology (ICT) as a general purpose technology' can explain the divergent U.S. and U.K. TFP performance after 1995. GPT stories suggest that measured TFP should rise in ICT-using sectors, perhaps with long lags. Contemporaneously, investments in ICT may in fact be associated with lower TFP as resources are diverted to reorganization and learning. In both the U.S. and U.K., we find a strong correlation between ICT use and industry TFP growth. The U.S. results, in particular, are consistent with GPT stories: the TFP acceleration was located primarily in ICT-using industries and is positively correlated with industry ICT capital growth from the 1980s and earl...
|December 1999||Indian Manufacturing Industry: Elephant or Tiger? New Evidence on the Asian Miracle|
with Charles R. Hulten: w7441
We estimate the rate of total factor productivity growth in Indian manufacturing industry for the period 1973-1992, and compare the results to those obtained by Young for the East Asian Tigers. We then interpret our results in light of Krugman's hypothesis that, because the Asian Miracle was driven by capital formation under diminishing marginal returns, it is not sustainable. We suggest a reinterpretation of the sustainability problem that recognizes the true role of TFP as a motive force in output growth. Past studies have compared the TFP residual to the growth rate of output and used this ratio as a measure of the importance of TFP as a source of growth. We argue that this is an erroneous way of assessing the role of TFP, because it ignores the additional capital formation made pos...