Kennedy School of Government
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NBER Working Papers and Publications
|July 1999||Testing for Structural Breaks in the Evaluation of Programs|
with Anne Morrison Piehl, Anthony A. Braga, David M. Kennedy: w7226
A standard methodology in program evaluation is to use time series variation to compare pre- and post-program outcomes. However, when the timing of a break in a statistical relationship can be determined only by looking at the data, then the usual distribution of the test statistic which assumes exogenous timing of the break is no longer valid. Tests for parameter instability provide a flexible framework for testing a range of hypotheses commonly posed in program evaluation. These tests help pinpoint the timing of maximal break and provide a valid test of statistical significance. These tests are particularly useful when the start date of the intervention and any effect is unclear and possibly endogenous due to implementation lags. A test of parameter instability is applied to the evalua...
Published: Piehl, Anne Morrison, Suzanne J. Cooper, Anthony A. Braga and David M. Kennedy. "Testing For Structural Breaks In The Evaluation Of Programs," Review of Economics and Statistics, 2003, v85(3,Aug), 550-558. citation courtesy of