NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Susan W. Parker

4109 Van Munching Hall
University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

February 2018Do Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Economic Outcomes in the Next Generation? Evidence from Mexico
with Tom Vogl: w24303
Conditional cash transfer programs have spread to over 80 countries in the past two decades, but little is known about their long-term effects on the youth they target. This paper estimates the impact of childhood exposure to the Mexican program Progresa on economic outcomes in early adulthood by leveraging the age structure of program benefits and geographic variation in early program penetration nationwide. The study design avoids the representativeness and attrition issues that have plagued efforts to estimate longer-run impacts of Progresa and other similar programs. Childhood exposure to the program improves educational attainment, geographic mobility, labor market outcomes, and household economic outcomes in early adulthood. Schooling impacts are similar for men and women, at roughly...
 
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