Department of Economics
University of Kentucky
Lexington, KY 40506
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|February 2018||Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?|
with Kasey Buckles, Daniel Hungerman: w24355
Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. In this paper we do something else: using data on more than 100 million births and focusing on within-year changes in fertility, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, the growth rate for conceptions begins to fall several quarters prior to economic decline. Our findings suggest that fertility behavior is more forward-looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought.
|September 2015||Demographics and Aggregate Household Saving in Japan, China, and India|
with Chadwick C. Curtis, Nelson C. Mark: w21555
We present a model of household life-cycle saving decisions in order to quantify the impact of demographic changes on aggregate household saving rates in Japan, China, and India. The observed age distributions help explain the contrasting saving patterns over time across the three countries. In the model simulations, the growing number of retirees suppresses Japanese saving rates, while decreasing family size increases saving for both China and India. Projecting forward, the model predicts lower household saving rates in Japan and China.
Published: Curtis, Chadwick C. & Lugauer, Steven & Mark, Nelson C., 2017. "Demographics and aggregate household saving in Japan, China, and India," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 175-191. citation courtesy of
|September 2014||Precautionary Saving of Chinese and U.S. Households|
with Horag Choi, Nelson C. Mark: w20527
We employ a model of precautionary saving to study why household saving rates are so high in China and so low in the US. The use of recursive preferences gives a convenient decomposition of saving into precautionary and non precautionary components. This decomposition indicates that over 80 percent of China's saving rate and nearly all of the US saving arises from the precautionary motive. The difference in the income growth rate between China and the US is vastly more important for explaining saving rate differences than differences in income risk. We estimate the preference parameters and find that Chinese and US households are more similar in their attitude toward risk than in their intertemporal substitutability of consumption.
Published: HORAG CHOI & STEVEN LUGAUER & NELSON C. MARK, 2017. "Precautionary Saving of Chinese and U.S. Households," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 49(4), pages 635-661. citation courtesy of
|February 2011||Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China|
with Chadwick C. Curtis, Nelson C. Mark: w16828
This paper studies the effect that changing demographic patterns have had on the household saving rate in China. We undertake a quantitative investigation using an overlapping generations (OLG) model where agents live for 85 years. Consumers begin to exercise decision making when they are 18. From age 18 to 60, they work and raise children. Dependent children's utility enter into parent's utility where parents choose the consumption level of the young until they leave the household. Working agents give a portion of their labor income to their retired parents and save for their own retirement while the aged live on their accumulated assets and support from their children. Remaining assets are bequeathed to the living upon death. We parameterize the model and take future demographic changes,...
Published: Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April. citation courtesy of