Bank for International Settlements
Basel 4002, Switzerland
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|November 2017||CoCo Issuance and Bank Fragility|
with Bilyana Bogdanova, Patrick Bolton, Wei Jiang, Anastasia Kartasheva: w23999
The promise of contingent convertible capital securities (CoCos) as a “bail-in” solution has been the subject of considerable theoretical analysis and debate, but little is known about their effects in practice. In this paper, we undertake the first comprehensive empirical analysis of bank CoCo issues, a market segment that comprises over 730 instruments totaling $521 billion. Four main findings emerge: 1) The propensity to issue a CoCo is higher for larger and better-capitalized banks; 2) CoCo issues result in statistically significant declines in issuers’ CDS spreads, indicating that they generate risk-reduction benefits and lower costs of debt. This is especially true for CoCos that: i) convert into equity, ii) have mechanical triggers, iii) are classified as Additional Tier 1 instrume...
|June 2017||The Shifting Drivers of Global Liquidity|
with Leonardo Gambacorta, Linda S. Goldberg, Stefano Schiaffi: w23565
The post-crisis period has seen a considerable shift in the composition and drivers of international bank lending and international bond issuance, the two main components of global liquidity. The sensitivity of both types of flow to US monetary policy rose substantially in the immediate aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, peaked around the time of the 2013 Fed “taper tantrum”, and then partially reverted towards pre-crisis levels. Conversely, the responsiveness of international bank lending to global risk conditions declined considerably post-crisis and became similar to that of international debt securities. The increased sensitivity of international bank flows to US monetary policy has been driven mainly by post-crisis changes in the behaviour of national lending banking systems, e...
|January 2017||Gross Capital Flows by Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns|
with Bryan Hardy, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Luis Servén: w23116
We construct a new dataset of quarterly capital flows by sector and establish four facts. First, the co-movement of capital inflows and outflows is driven by banks. Second, procyclicality of capital inflows is driven by banks and corporates, whereas sovereigns’ external liabilities move acyclically in advanced and countercyclically in emerging countries. Third, procyclicality of capital outflows is driven by advanced countries’ banks and emerging countries’ sovereigns (reserves). Fourth, capital inflows and outflows decline for banks and corporates, when global risk aversion (VIX) increases, whereas sovereigns’ flows show no response. These facts are inconsistent with a large class of theoretical models.