NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Simon Rottke

University of Muenster
Finance Center
Universitaetsstr. 14-16
48143 Muenster
Germany

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org

NBER Working Papers and Publications

December 2018Overconfidence, Information Diffusion, and Mispricing Persistence
with Kent Daniel, Alexander Klos: w25346
We propose a dynamic heterogeneous agents model which generates testable hypotheses about the formation, timing and bursting of asset price bubbles in the presence of short-sale constraints, given a calibration that is consistent with momentum and reversal effects for unconstrained assets. Consistent with the model, all short-sale constrained stocks earn strong negative risk-adjusted returns in the first year after portfolio formation. However, the calibrated model predicts strong differences in the mispricing persistence of past-winners and losers. After one year, the alpha of past-losers is approximately zero (0.23%/mo, t=0.85), while the alpha for past-winners is -0.75%/mo (t=-5.82) over the following four years.
December 2017The Cross-Section of Risk and Return
with Kent Daniel, Lira Mota, Tano Santos: w24164
In the finance literature, a common practice is to create factor-portfolios by sorting on characteristics associated with average returns. We show that the resulting portfolios are likely to capture not only the priced risk associated with the characteristic, but also unpriced risk. We show that the unpriced risk can be hedged out of these factor-portfolios using covariance information estimated from past returns. We apply our methodology to hedge out unpriced risk in the Fama and French (2015) five factor-portfolios. We find that the squared Sharpe- ratio of the optimal combination of the resulting hedged factor-portfolios is 2.26, compared with 1.21 for the unhedged portfolios.
 
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