NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
loading...

Sebastian Weber

European Department International Monetary Fund
700 19th Street, NW
Washington DC 20431

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: International Monetary Fund

NBER Working Papers and Publications

March 2019Expectations During the U.S. Housing Boom: Inferring Beliefs from Actions
with Itzhak Ben-David, Pascal Towbin: w25702
We assess the role of price expectations in forming the U.S. housing boom in the mid-2000s by studying the dynamics of vacant properties. When agents anticipate price increases, they amass excess capacity. Thus, housing vacancy discriminates between price movements related to shocks to demand for housing services (low vacancy) and expectation shocks (high vacancy). We implement this idea using a structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions. In the aggregate, expectation shocks are the most important factor explaining the boom, immediately followed by mortgage rate shocks. In the cross-section, expectation shocks are the major factor explaining price movements in the Sand States, which experienced unprecedented booms.
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us