Scott A. Kulp
One Palmer Square, Suite 402
Princeton, NJ 08542
Institutional Affiliation: Climate Central
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|August 2018||Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding|
with Klaus Desmet, Robert E. Kopp, Dávid Krisztián Nagy, Michael Oppenheimer, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Benjamin H. Strauss: w24918
Sea-level rise and ensuing permanent coastal inundation will cause spatial shifts in population and economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a highly spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy that accounts for the dynamics of migration, trade, and innovation, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea-level changes under different emissions scenarios. Under an intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by an average of 0.19% in present value terms, with welfare declining by 0.24% as people move to places with less attractive amenities. By the year 2200 a projected 1.46% of world population will be displaced. Losses in many coastal localities are more than an o...