Department of Economics
530 Evans Hall
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|March 2017||The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve|
with Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko: w23304
This paper argues for a careful (re)consideration of the expectations formation process and a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic analyses. While the rational expectations revolution has allowed for great leaps in macroeconomic modeling, the surveyed empirical micro-evidence appears increasingly at odds with the full-information rational expectation assumption. We explore models of expectation formation that can potentially explain why and how survey data deviate from full-information rational expectations. Using the New Keynesian Phillips curve as an extensive case study, we demonstrate how incorporating survey data on inflation expectations can address a number of otherwise puzzling shortcomings that arise under the assumption of full-...