NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Robert N. McCauley

Senior Adviser
Monetary and Economic Department
Bank for International Settlements
Centralbahnplatz 2
Basel 4002
Switzerland

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

January 2018Triffin: dilemma or myth?
with Michael D. Bordo: w24195
Triffin gained enormous influence by reviving the interwar story that gold scarcity threatened deflation. In particular, he held that central banks needed to accumulate claims on the United States to back money growth. But the claims would eventually surpass the US gold stock and then central banks would inevitably stage a run on it. He feared that the resulting high US interest rates would cause global deflation. However, we show that the US gold position after WWII was no worse than the UK position in 1900. Yet it took WWI to break sterling’s gold link. And better and feasible US policies could have kept Bretton Woods going. This history serves as a backdrop to our critical review of two later extensions of Triffin. One holds that the dollar’s reserve role required US current account de...
February 2009Hong Kong and Shanghai: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow
with Eric Chan
in Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 18, Takatoshi Ito and Andrew K. Rose, editors
 
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