NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Peng Shi

Microsoft Research New England

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

January 2014Demand Modeling, Forecasting, and Counterfactuals, Part I
with Parag A. Pathak: w19859
There are relatively few systematic comparisons of the ex ante counterfactual predictions from structural models to what occurs ex post. This paper uses a large-scale policy change in Boston in 2014 to investigate the performance of discrete choice models of demand compared to simpler alternatives. In 2013, Boston Public Schools (BPS) proposed alternative zone configurations in their school choice plan, each of which alters the set of schools participants are allowed to rank. Pathak and Shi (2013) estimated discrete choice models of demand using families' historical choices and these demand models were used to forecast the outcomes under alternative plans. BPS, the school committee, and the public used these forecasts to compare alternatives and eventually adopt a new plan for Spring 2014....
 
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