Dept. of Economics
University of Pennsylvania
3718 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|March 2001||Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility|
with Torben G. Andersen, Tim Bollerslev, Francis X. Diebold: w8160
This paper provides a general framework for integration of high-frequency intraday data into the measurement forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting financial asset return volatilities, correlations, and distributions rely on restrictive and complicated parametric multivariate ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility constructed from high-frequency intraday returns, in contrast, permits the use of traditional time series procedures for modeling and forecasting. Building on the theory of continuous-time arbitrage-free price processes and the theory of quadratic variation, we formally develop the links between the conditional covarianc...
Published: Andersen, Torben G., Tim Bollerslev, Francis X. Diebold and Paul Labys. "Modeling And Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, 2003, v71(2,Mar), 579-625. citation courtesy of
|January 2000||Exchange Rate Returns Standardized by Realized Volatility are (Nearly) Gaussian|
with Torben G. Andersen, Tim Bollerslev, Francis X. Diebold: w7488
It is well known that high-frequency asset returns are fat-tailed relative to the Gaussian distribution tails are typically reduced but not eliminated when returns are standardized by volatilities estimated from popular models such as GARCH. We consider two major dollar exchange rates, and we show that returns standardized instead by the realized volatilities of Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (1999) are very nearly Gaussian. We perform both univariate and multivariate analyses, we trace the different effects of the different standardizations to differences in information sets, and we draw implications for the presence of jumps in exchange rate diffusions.
- Andersen, Torben G., Tim Bollerslev, Francis X. Diebold and Paul Labys. "The Distribution Of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2001, v96(453,Mar), 42-55.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2000. "Exchange Rate Returns Standardized by Realized Volatility are (Nearly) Gaussian," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 4(3-4), pages 159-179, September. citation courtesy of
|February 1999||The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility|
with Torben Andersen, Tim Bollerslev, Francis X. Diebold: w6961
Using high-frequency data on Deutschemark and Yen returns against the dollar, we construct model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility and correlation, covering an entire decade. In addition to being model-free, our estimates are also approximately free of measurement error under general conditions, which we delineate. Hence, for all practical purposes, we can treat the exchange rate volatilities and correlations as observed rather than latent. We do so, and we characterize their joint distribution, both unconditionally and conditionally. Noteworthy results include a simple normality-inducing volatility transformation, high contemporaneous correlation across volatilities, high correlation between correlation and volatilities, pronounced and highly persistent temporal variati...
Published: Andersen, Torben G., Tim Bollerslev, Francis X. Diebold and Paul Labys. "The Distribution Of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2001, v96(453,Mar), 42-55.