Department of Economics
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Los Angeles, CA 90024
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NBER Working Papers and Publications
|September 1997||Capital Income Taxation and Risk-Taking in a Small Open Economy|
with Stephen J. Turnovsky: w6189
How do capital income taxes affect household portfolio choice and growth? We" approach this question within the context of a stochastic model of a small open economy in" which taxes on income from domestic capital (equity) and foreign bonds affect household" portfolio choice, welfare and the growth rate of the economy. The theoretical and numerical" analysis demonstrates the important role that risk plays in determining the mean and variability" of growth as well as the conditions under which a higher tax rate can be welfare improving. To" shed more light on the complex theoretical interaction between taxes and risk-taking we estimate" a reduced-form multinomial probit model of household portfolio choice using the method of" simulated moments. The empirical evidence is in stark contras...
Published: Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 68, no. 1 (April 1998): 55-90. citation courtesy of
|May 1997||Time-to-Build and Cycles|
with Paul J. Zak: t0211
We analyze the dynamics of a simple growth model in which production occurs with a delay while new capital is installed (time-to-build). The time-to-build technology is shown to yield a system of functional (delay) differential equations with a unique steady state. We demonstrate that the steady state, though typically a saddle, may exhibit Hopf cycles on a measurable set of the parameter space. Furthermore, the optimal path to the steady state is oscillatory. A counter-example to the claim that intrinsically oscillatory on the central technical apparatus the mathematics of functional differential equations.
|March 1997||Heterogeneous Information Arrival and Option Pricing|
with Mthuli Ncube: w5950
We model the arrival of heterogeneous information in a financial market as a doubly-stochastic Poisson process (DSPP). A DSPP is a member of the family of Poisson processes in which the mean value of the process itself is governed by a stochastic mechanism. We explore the implications for pricing stock, index and foreign currency options of the assumption that the under- lying security evolves as a mixed diffusion DSPP. We derive an intertemporal CAPM and demonstrate that accounting for heterogeneous information arrival may minimize the ubiquitous pricing bias 'smile-effect' of standard option pricing models. We propose a conceptually simple but numerically intensive maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of a DSPP. A simulation study verifies the adequacy of the asymptotic ap...
Published: Asea, Patrick K. & Ncube, Mthuli, 1998. "Heterogeneous information arrival and option pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 291-323. citation courtesy of
with S. Brock Blomberg: w5951
We investigate the lending behavior of banks by exploiting a rich panel dataset on the contract terms of approximately two million commercial and industrial loans granted by 580 banks between 1977-1993. Using a Markov switching panel model we demonstrate that banks change their lending standards from tightness to laxity systematically over the cycle. We then use an efficient minimum chi-square estimator to examine the relationship between the cyclical component of aggregate unemployment and bank lending standards when both variables are jointly endogenously determined in a system of simultaneous equations with mixed, continuous/discrete dependent variables. The patterns we uncover suggest that lax lending standards that tend to occur during expansions exert considerable influence on the ...
Published: Asea, Patrick K. & Blomberg, Brock, 1998. "Lending cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 89-128. citation courtesy of