Paolo Surico

London Business School
Regent's Park
London (United Kingdom)
Tel: 44-20-7601-4279
Fax: 44-20-7601-4610

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

December 2014Regional Transfers
with Raphael Corbi, Elias Papaioannou: w20751
We exploit a series of discontinuities, at several population thresholds, in the allocation mechanism of federal transfers to municipal governments in Brazil to identify the causal effect of municipal spending on local labor markets, using a ‘fuzzy’ regression discontinuity design. Our estimates imply a cost per job of about 8; 000 US dollars per year, mostly driven by employment in services, and a local income multiplier of around two. A currency union model with nominal rigidities and liquidity constraints implies that the stimulative effects would have been substantially smaller if local government spending was financed by local tax revenues rather than regional transfers.
June 2012Risk Heterogeneity and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Mortgage Market
with Timothy Besley, Neil Meads
in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012, Volume 27, Daron Acemoglu, Jonathan Parker, and Michael Woodford, editors
This paper uses data on about 600,000 mortgage contracts to estimate a credit supply function that allows for heterogeneity in risk pricing. The results for the period 1975-2005 are suggestive of significant price heterogeneity with riskier borrowers increasingly penalized for borrowing more. A sub-sample analysis, however, reveals that the period before the financial crisis was characterized by a sharp fall in risk pricing and little evidence of heterogeneity, consistent with a relaxation of credit conditions.
September 2010Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility
with Pierpaolo Benigno, Luca Antonio Ricci: w16374
The paper presents a new empirical regularity between the volatility of productivity growth and long-run unemployment, for a given level of long-run productivity growth. A theoretical framework based on asymmetric real wage rigidities is shown to have the potential to rationalize this finding. The model tends to fit U.S. long-run unemployment better than a specification based on long-run productivity growth only, especially during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession.

Published: Pierpaolo Benigno & Luca Antonio Ricci & Paolo Surico, 2015. "Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(3), pages 698-709, July. citation courtesy of

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