NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Norman Swanson

Department of Economics
Rutgers University
75 Hamilton Street
New Brunswick, NJ 08901
Tel: 765-494-4402; nswanson@mgmt.purdue.edu

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

December 1998Trade, Investment, and Growth: Nexus, Analysis, and Prognosis
with Kala Krishna, Ataman Ozyildirim: w6861
This paper looks at the patterns of causation between income, export, import, and investment growth for 25 developing countries. Our approach differs from previous efforts in a number of ways. First, we examine each country individually in order to allow for complete heterogeneity and properly account for the stochastic trending properties of the data. Second, we apply novel model selection techniques which are based on in-sample goodness-of-fit criteria and ex-ante predictive ability criteria to identify the best model for each country. Finally, we propose a rather novel device based on simple contingency tables which allows us to assess whether our models are capable of accurately predicting turning points in GDP growth. We find that countries with high trade exposure fare poorly in...

Published: Krishna, Kala & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Swanson, Norman R., 2003. "Trade, investment and growth: nexus, analysis and prognosis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 479-499, April. citation courtesy of

 
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