NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Department of Economics
University of Texas at Austin
3.142 BRB, 2225 Speedway
Austin, TX 78713
Tel: 503/616-1616

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NBER Program Affiliations: IFM
NBER Affiliation: Faculty Research Fellow
Institutional Affiliation: University of Texas at Austin

NBER Working Papers and Publications

May 2019Multinationals, Offshoring and the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing
with Christoph E. Boehm, Aaron Flaaen: w25824
We provide new facts about the role of multinationals in the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment between 1993-2011, using a novel microdata panel with firm-level ownership and trade information. Multinational-owned establishments displayed lower employment growth than a narrow control group and accounted for 41% of the aggregate manufacturing employment decline. Further, newly multinational establishments in the U.S. experienced job losses, while their parent firms increased input imports from abroad. We develop a model that rationalizes this behavior and bound a key elasticity with our microdata. The estimates imply that a reduction in the costs of foreign sourcing leads firms to increase imports of intermediates and to reduce U.S. manufacturing employment. Our findings suggest that ...
March 2015TFP, News, and "Sentiments:" The International Transmission of Business Cycles
with Andrei A. Levchenko: w21010
We propose a novel identification scheme for a non-technology business cycle shock, that we label "sentiment." This is a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks that maximizes the short-run forecast error variance of an expectational variable, alternatively a GDP forecast or a consumer confidence index. We then estimate the international transmission of three identified shocks – surprise TFP, news of future TFP, and "sentiment" – from the US to Canada. The US sentiment shock produces a business cycle in the US, with output, hours, and consumption rising following a positive shock, and accounts for the bulk of short-run business cycle fluctuations in the US. The sentiment shock also has a significant impact on Canadian macro aggregates. In the short run, it is more impor...
 
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