Ngoc-Khanh Tran

Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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NBER Working Papers and Publications

July 2011The Behavior of Savings and Asset Prices When Preferences and Beliefs are Heterogeneous
with Richard J. Zeckhauser: w17199
Movements in asset prices are a major risk confronting individuals. This paper establishes new asset pricing results when agents differ in risk preference, time preference and/or expectations. It shows that risk tolerance is a critical concept driving savings decisions, consumption allocations, prices and return volatilities. Surprisingly, due to the equilibrium risk sharing, the precautionary savings motive in the aggregate can vastly exceed that of even the most prudent actual agent in the economy. Consequently, a low real interest rate, resulting from large aggregate savings, can prevail with reasonable risk aversions for all agents. One downside of a large aggregate savings motive is that savings rates become extremely sensitive to output fluctuation. Thus, the same mechanism tha...
May 2010Rare Disasters and Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs
with Hui Chen, Scott Joslin: w16035
Although the threat of rare economic disasters can have large effect on asset prices, difficulty in inference regarding both their likelihood and severity provides the potential for disagreements among investors. Such disagreements lead investors to insure each other against the types of disasters each one fears the most. Due to the highly nonlinear relationship between consumption losses in a disaster and the risk premium, a small amount of risk sharing can significantly attenuate the effect that disaster risk has on the equity premium. We characterize the sensitivity of risk premium to wealth distribution analytically. Our model shows that time variation in the wealth distribution and the amount of disagreement across agents can both lead to significant variation in disaster risk premium...

Published: Hui Chen & Scott Joslin & Ngoc-Khanh Tran, 2012. "Rare Disasters and Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2189-2224. citation courtesy of

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