Department of Economics
Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|November 2018||Heterogeneity in Expectations, Risk Tolerance, and Household Stock Shares: The Attenuation Puzzle|
with John Ameriks, Gábor Kézdi, Matthew D. Shapiro: w25269
This paper jointly estimates the relationship between stock share and expectations and risk preferences. The survey allows individual-level, quantitative estimates of risk tolerance and of the perceived mean and variance of stock returns. These estimates have economically and statistically significant association for the distribution of stock shares with relative magnitudes in proportion with the predictions of theories. Incorporating survey measurement error in the estimation model increases the estimated associations twofold, but they are still substantially attenuated being only about 5 percent of what benchmark finance theories predict. Because of the careful attention in the estimation to measurement error, the attenuation likely arises from economic behavior rather than errors in var...
|November 2017||Older Americans Would Work Longer If Jobs Were Flexible|
with John Ameriks, Joseph S. Briggs, Andrew Caplin, Matthew D. Shapiro, Christopher Tonetti: w24008
Older Americans, even those who are long retired, have strong willingness to work, especially in jobs with flexible schedules. For many, labor force participation near or after normal retirement age is limited more by a lack of acceptable job opportunities or low expectations about finding them than by unwillingness to work longer. This paper establishes these findings using an approach to identification based on strategic survey questions (SSQs), purpose-designed to complement behavioral data. These findings suggest that demand-side factors are important in explaining late-in-life labor market behavior and need to be considered in designing policies aimed at promoting working longer.
|February 2015||The Wealth of Wealthholders|
with John Ameriks, Andrew Caplin, Matthew D. Shapiro, Christopher Tonetti: w20972
This paper introduces the Vanguard Research Initiative (VRI), a new panel survey of wealthholders designed to yield high-quality measurements of a large sample of older Americans who arrive at retirement with significant financial assets. The VRI links survey data with a variety of administrative data from Vanguard. The survey features an account-by-account approach to asset measurement and a real-time feedback and correction mechanism that are shown to be highly successful in eliciting accurate measures of wealth. Specifically, the VRI data reflect unbiased and precise estimates of wealth when compared to administrative account data. The VRI sample has characteristics similar to populations meeting analogous wealth and Internet access eligibility conditions in the Health and Retirement St...